- Slower Export Pace: Ukraine’s total grain exports for 2025/26 MY are down 27% year-on-year at 19.38 million tons as of February 6.
- Corn-Dominated Flows: Corn made up 98% of February shipments at 463,000 tons, while wheat exports nearly stopped at just 6,000 tons.
- Seasonal Weakness: February grain exports of 473,000 tons are 38% lower than the 758,000 tons shipped in the same period last year.
- Neutral to Bearish Outlook: Logistics constraints and reduced wheat flows point to a neutral to bearish bias for Ukrainian grain export prospects near term.
Ukrainian Grain Export Overview
Ukraine’s grain export campaign in the 2025/26 marketing year is lagging significantly behind last season. As of February 6, cumulative exports of grain and leguminous crops reached 19.38 million tons versus 26.449 million tons at the same point in 2024, reflecting a 27% year-on-year decline.
| Metric | 2025/26 MY (as of Feb 6) | 2024/25 MY (as of Feb 6) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & legume exports | 19.38 mln tons | 26.449 mln tons | -27% |
Export Composition by Crop
The structure of Ukraine’s grain exports has shifted toward corn, which now leads the export mix ahead of wheat and barley. Rye remains marginal.
| Commodity | 2025/26 MY Exports (as of Feb 6) |
|---|---|
| Corn | 9.244 mln tons |
| Wheat | 8.494 mln tons |
| Barley | 1.338 mln tons |
| Rye | 200 tons |
February 2025 Export Activity
February shipments so far highlight the dominance of corn and the near standstill in wheat exports, underscoring a marked change in Ukraine’s short-term export profile.
| Commodity | February 2025 Exports (through Feb 6) | Share of Feb Grain Exports |
|---|---|---|
| Total grain | 473,000 tons | 100% |
| Corn | 463,000 tons | ~98% |
| Wheat | 6,000 tons | ~1% |
| Barley | 3,000 tons | <1% |
Compared with the same period last year, February grain exports are down sharply. Shipments of 473,000 tons represent a 38% decline from 758,000 tons exported in early February 2024.
| Period | Grain Exports | Change vs Previous Year |
|---|---|---|
| February 2025 (through Feb 6) | 473,000 tons | -38% vs 758,000 tons |
Flour Exports
In addition to bulk grains, Ukraine exported 39,500 tons of flour in the 2025/26 season to date, including 700 tons shipped in February.
| Product | 2025/26 MY Total | February 2025 (through Feb 6) |
|---|---|---|
| Flour | 39,500 tons | 700 tons |
Market Implications
The 27% year-on-year drop in total exports reflects ongoing structural and logistical constraints in the Black Sea region, alongside reduced production. The near absence of wheat shipments in February points to possible domestic supply tightness or more competitive pricing from alternative origins, especially within the broader Black Sea market.
For traders and end-users, the corn-heavy export profile signals continued availability of Ukrainian corn, while wheat procurement may increasingly shift to rival exporters. Overall, the current data imply a neutral to bearish outlook for Ukraine’s grain export prospects in the near term, particularly for wheat.
Source: Market Data
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