- Prices Surge: Ukrainian refined sunflower oil prices have risen by USD 85/MT since the start of the 2025/26 season.
- Supply Tightness: Smaller-than-expected sunflower harvest and higher input costs are tightening market fundamentals.
- Strong Demand: Robust export interest and alignment with global vegetable oil trends are keeping the market bullish.
Ukrainian Refined Sunflower Oil Market Update
According to APK-Inform monitoring data, bulk refined sunflower oil prices in Ukraine have increased by USD 85 per ton since the beginning of the 2025/26 marketing season. The market is experiencing multiple upward price drivers, with tight raw material availability, elevated energy and logistics costs, and sustained export demand all contributing to the recent rally.
A smaller-than-expected sunflower harvest has tightened domestic supply, pushing up the cost of sunflowers for crushers and refiners. At the same time, higher energy and transport expenses are inflating production and delivery costs, which are being passed through to end-users. Exporters continue to show strong interest in Ukrainian vegetable oil, helping to support and, in some cases, accelerate price gains.
The price dynamics in Ukraine closely mirror those across the global vegetable oil complex. This alignment indicates that the Ukrainian market is responding not only to domestic fundamentals but also to broader international trends, limiting downside risk as long as global vegetable oil markets remain firm.
Price Movement Overview
| Commodity | Market | Season | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined Sunflower Oil (Bulk) | Ukraine | 2025/26 (from season start) | +USD 85/MT |
Market Analysis and Outlook
Bullish. The USD 85/MT increase underscores fundamental tightness in the Ukrainian refined sunflower oil market. Reduced crop availability is constraining supply, while strong export buying interest maintains demand-side pressure. With cost inflation in energy and logistics reinforcing the uptrend, prices are likely to remain supported in the near term.
Traders should closely track updated sunflower harvest estimates and any policy or logistical disruptions that could further affect supply flows. On the demand side, attention should focus on key importing regions and potential shifts toward substitute vegetable oils. Given the strong correlation with global vegetable oil markets, meaningful downside risk appears limited unless there is a significant correction in the broader complex.
Source: Market Data
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