Odesa Railcar Backlog Slows Grain Exports

• Average daily grain railcar unloading at Greater Odesa ports fell 20% week-on-week to 915 units/day, signaling worsening congestion.
• Railcar backlog to Greater Odesa climbed to 9,847 units (about 11 days of unloading at current rates), while loading toward these ports slipped to 853 units/day.
• Danube ports showed relative improvement, with average daily unloading nearly doubling to 31 railcars/day amid slightly higher inbound flows.
• Overall logistics picture is neutral to slightly bearish for near-term freight efficiency, with potential upward pressure on export logistics costs.

Greater Odesa Port Rail Logistics Update

Ukrainian rail freight performance at Greater Odesa ports continues to weaken. As of February 5, the average daily unloading rate dropped to 915 railcars per day, down from 1,150 units a week earlier, underscoring mounting congestion at key Black Sea export terminals.

Despite this slowdown, railcar flows toward Greater Odesa remain elevated. The number of grain railcars in transit to these ports increased to 9,847 units, up 482 week-on-week. At the same time, the average daily loading rate of railcars dispatched toward Greater Odesa declined by 310 units to 853 per day, reflecting both operational constraints and possible attempts to moderate inflows.

Danube Ports Activity

In contrast, Danube ports posted modest gains. Railcars moving toward Danube facilities edged up from 125 to 134 units, while average daily unloading nearly doubled to 31 railcars per day, an increase of 20 units week-on-week. Although volumes remain small compared with Greater Odesa, this improvement suggests some diversion of export flows toward alternative corridors.

Logistics Bottlenecks and Market Impact

The combination of declining unloading capacity and a growing backlog at Greater Odesa points to operational bottlenecks at port terminals, potentially driven by adverse weather, labor constraints, or limited vessel line-up. The 9,847-unit backlog equates to roughly 11 days of unloading at current rates, implying probable shipment delays and higher demurrage exposure for exporters.

While the Danube corridor is improving, its absolute capacity remains insufficient to fully offset Black Sea disruption. If the Odesa bottleneck persists, it could pressure FOB Black Sea basis levels, complicate execution of nearby shipment windows, and incrementally raise logistics costs, leaving the near-term freight outlook neutral to slightly bearish.

Rail Logistics Metrics Overview

Source: Market Data