- Ukrainian wheat acreage projected to decline 5% year-on-year to just under 5 million hectares in 2026.
- Barley area in Ukraine expected to fall sharply by 21% to 1.1 million hectares, tightening feed grain supplies.
- Corn acreage seen rising 3% to 4.7 million hectares, partially offsetting reduced wheat and barley areas.
- Uzbekistan–Pakistan hybrid wheat project targets yields above 10 tons/hectare, aiming to cut Central Asian import dependence.
- Bearish implications for Black Sea wheat supply in 2026/27, with potential long-term demand shifts in Central Asia.
Market Update
APK-Inform analysts’ initial February forecasts indicate Ukrainian wheat acreage will decrease by 5% in 2026 versus 2025, to just under 5 million hectares. Barley acreage is set for a much steeper contraction of 21%, falling to 1.1 million hectares. In contrast, corn acreage is projected to grow 3% to 4.7 million hectares. Overall, total grain acreage in Ukraine is expected to reach 11.5 million hectares, representing a 4% year-on-year decline.
| Crop | 2026 Forecast Area (M ha) | YoY Change vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | < 5.0 | -5% |
| Barley | 1.1 | -21% |
| Corn | 4.7 | +3% |
| Total Grain | 11.5 | -4% |
In Central Asia, Uzbek Agriculture Minister Ibrohim Abdurakhmanov’s working visit to Pakistan has resulted in a joint project with the University of Agriculture Faisalabad and the National Institute of Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology. The partners plan to develop hybrid wheat varieties targeting yields above 10 tons per hectare, using accelerated breeding methods, experimental fields, and advanced biotechnological tools deployed in Uzbekistan.
Analysis
The projected 5% reduction in Ukrainian wheat acreage—around 250,000 hectares—points to weaker Black Sea wheat export potential in the 2026/27 season. The 21% drop in barley area amplifies tightness in feed grain availability, particularly for importers reliant on Ukrainian supplies. While a 3% expansion in corn acreage offers some offset, the net effect is bearish for overall Black Sea wheat and barley supply. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan’s push into high-yield hybrid wheat technology underscores a strategic move to reduce long-term import dependence, which could gradually soften regional demand for Black Sea wheat as domestic productivity in Central Asia improves.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply