Key Takeaways
- Record Crush: Canadian canola processing hit 1.08 million tonnes in December, up 6% month-on-month and the second-highest monthly volume on record.
- Seasonal High: August–December 2025 crush reached 5.1 million tonnes, surpassing 4.9 million tonnes a year earlier.
- Efficiency Gains: Canola oil extraction rate improved to 42.3%, slightly above the 42.1% average in August–December 2024.
- China Demand Shift: Chinese buyers are actively booking Canadian canola meal for April–June, threatening Ukrainian rapeseed meal’s market share.
- Bearish Black Sea Meal: Stronger Canadian crush and renewed Chinese access are bearish for Black Sea rapeseed meal values.
Market Update
Canada’s commercial canola processing sector posted another strong month in December, with crush volumes reaching 1.08 million tonnes, a 6% increase versus November, according to Statistics Canada. This is the second-highest monthly crush ever recorded in Canada, just below October 2024’s 1.1 million tonnes.
Over the August–December 2025 period, cumulative canola crush reached a record 5.1 million tonnes, up from 4.9 million tonnes in the same period of 2024. Processing efficiency has also improved, with the canola oil extraction rate rising to 42.3%, slightly above the 42.1% average recorded in August–December 2024.
Market intelligence suggests Chinese importers are now actively contracting Canadian canola meal for April–June delivery. Canadian industry associations have confirmed discussions around resuming and expanding trade flows to China, underlining the renewed competitiveness of Canadian meal in Asian markets.
| Period | Metric | 2024/25 | 2023/24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| December | Canola crush volume | 1.08 million tonnes | — |
| October 2024 | Canola crush volume (record) | 1.10 million tonnes | — |
| Aug–Dec | Cumulative crush volume | 5.1 million tonnes | 4.9 million tonnes |
| Aug–Dec | Oil extraction rate | 42.3% | 42.1% |
| Apr–Jun (forward) | Chinese purchases | Canadian canola meal actively booked | Higher share of Ukrainian rapeseed meal |
Analysis: Bearish for Black Sea Rapeseed Meal
The resurgence in Canadian canola crushing and improving margins, combined with renewed access to the Chinese market, is structurally bearish for Black Sea rapeseed meal. Canada’s expanding crush volumes generate more exportable meal, and China’s pivot back to Canadian origins directly challenges Ukraine’s role as a key supplier of rapeseed byproducts to the region.
With Canadian meal increasingly competitive on price and reliability, Ukrainian and broader Black Sea rapeseed meal exporters are likely to face intensified pricing pressure and may need to diversify into alternative destinations to clear volumes. At the same time, tighter global rapeseed and canola seed supply-demand balances, driven by strong crush and firm oil demand, could underpin rapeseed prices even as meal values in the Black Sea region come under strain.
Source: Market Data
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