Ukrainian Corn Prices Surge on Strong Export Demand and Farmer Holdbacks
Key Takeaways
- Port prices higher: Feed corn bids rose USD 2-4/tonne in Odessa and USD 2-3/tonne in Danube ports in early February.
- Stronger demand: Robust importer interest and competitive corn export economics versus other crops are supporting prices.
- Farmer holdbacks: Restricted farmer selling and a slower-than-expected harvest are tightening near-term supply.
- Bullish tone: Near-term market remains supportive, though a larger year-on-year harvest limits the upside for a prolonged rally.
Market Update
Feed corn prices on the Ukrainian export market continued to climb during the first week of February. According to APK-Inform, bid prices at Odessa port increased by USD 2-4/tonne, reaching USD 208-215/tonne CPT as of February 6. Danube ports also strengthened, adding USD 2-3/tonne to stand at USD 205-212/tonne CPT over the same period.
The rally is being driven by multiple reinforcing factors. Corn export rates remain more attractive than those for competing crops, drawing steady buying interest from international importers. At the same time, Ukrainian farmers are limiting marketable volumes, holding grain in anticipation of further price gains. The ongoing harvest is progressing more slowly than many market participants expected, tightening short-term availability despite the country registering a larger overall crop versus last season.
Corn Price Snapshot
| Location | Commodity | Price Range (CPT) | Weekly Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odessa port | Feed corn | USD 208–215/tonne | +USD 2–4/tonne | 6 Feb |
| Danube ports | Feed corn | USD 205–212/tonne | +USD 2–3/tonne | 6 Feb |
| Spread (Odessa vs Danube) | Feed corn | ≈USD 3/tonne premium for Odessa | — | 6 Feb |
Market Analysis
Bullish. The combination of firm importer demand, competitive export economics and restrained farmer selling is creating a supportive short-term environment for Ukrainian corn. The roughly USD 3/tonne premium at Odessa relative to Danube ports reflects standard logistical and infrastructure advantages, while both export corridors are benefiting from the same constructive fundamentals.
Traders should closely track producer marketing behavior. If farmers continue to hold back stocks in expectation of higher prices, the current upward momentum could persist. However, the larger year-on-year harvest ultimately caps the scope for an extended rally, as accelerated farmer selling later in the season is likely to increase available supply and temper further price gains.
Source: Market Data
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