Key Takeaways
- Prices edge higher: Ukrainian grade 3 milling wheat export prices rose USD 1–3/ton after a prolonged period of stability.
- Port quotations strengthen: Greater Odessa ports quote USD 208–216/ton CPT, Danube ports USD 207–214/ton CPT as of February 4, 2026.
- Stronger MENA demand: Increased buying interest from Egypt and Turkey supported the uptick.
- Reduced Russian pressure: Russian wheat prices at a two‑month high softened competitive pressure on Ukrainian origins.
- Farmer selling remains tight: Ukrainian farmers are reluctant sellers, expecting potentially better prices ahead.
- Upside still capped: Military risks, ample global grain supplies, stronger USD, EU sales, and lower oil prices limit further gains.
Market Update
Ukrainian wheat export prices broke out of an extended period of stability this week, posting modest gains amid firmer demand from key MENA buyers. Bid prices for grade 3 milling wheat reached USD 208–216 per ton CPT port in Greater Odessa and USD 207–214 per ton CPT port in Danube facilities as of February 4, 2026. This reflects an increase of roughly USD 1–3 per ton from the previous week.
The price uptick was driven primarily by stronger purchasing interest from Egypt and Turkey, two core destinations for Black Sea wheat exporters. At the same time, Russian wheat prices climbed to a two‑month high, reducing Russia’s price advantage and allowing Ukrainian offers to compete more effectively in tenders and spot business.
Domestic dynamics added further support. Exporters and flour milling companies competed more aggressively for quality wheat, tightening available exportable surplus. However, despite slightly firmer prices, many Ukrainian farmers remained cautious sellers, holding back volumes in anticipation of better pricing later in the season.
Several headwinds limited the scale of the rally. Ongoing military risks, relatively abundant global grain supplies, increased farmer sales into EU markets, a stronger US dollar, and easing global oil prices all acted as bearish counterweights, capping near‑term upside for Ukrainian wheat values.
Price Overview
| Location / Commodity | Specification | Price (USD/ton, CPT) | Weekly Change (USD/ton) | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Odessa ports | Ukrainian wheat, grade 3 milling | 208–216 | +1 to +3 | 4 Feb 2026 |
| Danube ports | Ukrainian wheat, grade 3 milling | 207–214 | +1 to +3 | 4 Feb 2026 |
Market Analysis
Market sentiment: Moderately bullish. The move higher in Ukrainian wheat export prices marks a notable break from recent stability and points to renewed competitiveness in key MENA markets. Fresh demand from Egypt and Turkey is especially important for Black Sea exporters seeking to defend and expand market share amid shifting global trade flows.
The modest USD 1–3/ton gain suggests the market is turning constructive but not yet in a full‑blown rally phase. Farmer reluctance to increase sales at current levels indicates that producers do not view today’s prices as a peak, reinforcing the sense that further upside is possible if external conditions align.
Going forward, traders and exporters should closely track Russian FOB values and tender activity from Egypt and Turkey. If Russian wheat remains relatively expensive and Egyptian buying stays active, Ukrainian wheat could see additional price support. Conversely, the combination of military risk, strong global supply, firmer USD, increased EU‑bound flows, and weaker oil prices will continue to limit the scope for sharp price appreciation.
Source: Market Data
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