- EU durum wheat production is set to decline due to reduced planting area and high fertilizer costs, opening space for Kazakhstani exporters.
- Global durum ending stocks are forecast to surge 21% in 2025/26 MY, led by a 202% y/y jump in Canadian stocks, pressuring prices.
- Black Sea producers (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey) saw 10–20% production declines in 2024/25, but overall volumes remain historically high.
- Kazakhstan’s competitive edge in Europe will hinge on quality compliance, logistics reliability, and partnerships with Italian pasta producers.
- Price outlook is Neutral to Bearish for regional durum wheat, but volume prospects into Europe are Bullish.
Kazakhstan Targets European Durum Wheat Market
Kazakhstani durum wheat producers have a strategic window to expand into the European market as EU production weakens, according to Carlotta De Pasquale, senior analyst at Areté, speaking at the KAZAKH GRAIN & LOGISTIC FORUM on February 3 in Almaty.
European farmers are shifting away from durum wheat toward alternative crops amid persistently low durum prices and elevated fertilizer costs. This shift is expected to reduce EU durum output and creates an opening for Kazakhstan to build its role as a stable supplier to European pasta manufacturers, particularly in Italy.
Requirements for Capturing Italian and EU Demand
De Pasquale highlighted three critical pillars for Kazakhstan to succeed in Europe: first, forming long-term partnerships with Italian pasta producers seeking reliable, diversified supply chains; second, upgrading and coordinating transport infrastructure to ensure timely deliveries into European destinations; and third, consistently meeting strict European quality and specification standards for durum wheat.
Global Durum Wheat Stocks and Production Shifts
Global durum wheat fundamentals point to substantial stock rebuilding. Areté projects 2025/26 MY ending stocks at historically high levels, up 21% from the current season. North America is the key driver: Canada achieved 12% production growth and is expected to close the season with durum stocks 202% higher than a year earlier.
| Region / Country | Metric | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Global | Durum ending stocks, 2025/26 MY | +21% vs current season |
| Canada | Durum production | +12% y/y |
| Canada | Durum ending stocks | +202% y/y |
| Russia | Durum production, 2024/25 | -20% y/y |
| Kazakhstan | Durum production, 2024/25 | -10% y/y |
| Turkey | Durum production, 2024/25 | -16% y/y |
In contrast to North America, Black Sea producers registered output declines: Russia’s durum wheat production fell 20% year-on-year, Kazakhstan’s by 10%, and Turkey’s by 16% in 2024/25. Despite these setbacks, current production levels in the region remain historically elevated.
Price Outlook and Strategic Implications
The combination of lower EU production and surging global stocks creates a mixed environment for Black Sea exporters. Reduced European output offers immediate export and volume growth opportunities for Kazakhstan, especially into Italy and other pasta-producing markets. However, record Canadian supplies and the resulting global oversupply are likely to cap prices and intensify competition for European market share.
Given these dynamics, the outlook for regional durum wheat prices is Neutral to Bearish, while the outlook for export volumes into Europe is Bullish. Kazakhstani exporters will need to compete on quality assurance, contract reliability, and logistics efficiency, rather than on pricing alone, to secure a durable position in the European durum value chain.
Source: Market Data
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