- Bullish: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices for February delivery climbed to $231/MT, a two-month high, signaling firm international demand.
- Bearish: Rusagrotrans slightly downgraded January export expectations to 2.7 million tons, pointing to logistical constraints or slower shipment pace.
- Mixed: Domestic prices are largely stable to weaker, especially in the Volga region, supporting export competitiveness but reflecting softer local demand.
Russian Wheat FOB Price Update
Russian wheat prices strengthened on the export market last week. According to JSC Rusagrotrans, 12.5% protein wheat for February delivery rose by $3.50 to $231 per ton FOB, reaching the highest level in two months. The price gain underscores ongoing international demand for Russian supplies despite seasonal and logistical headwinds.
| Commodity / Region | Specification | Price Range | Currency / Basis | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Wheat | 12.5% protein, Feb delivery | $231/MT | FOB | +$3.50 |
| Rail Delivery (Domestic) | Wheat, internal logistics | 15,800–16,200 | RUB/MT | -50 RUB |
| Low-Water Delivery Points | Wheat, internal logistics | 14,400–14,600 | RUB/MT | Stable |
| Southern Russia | Class 4 wheat, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator | 13,500–14,000 | RUB/MT | Stable |
| Central Region | Wheat, domestic | 12,000–12,500 | RUB/MT | Stable |
| Volga Region | Wheat, domestic | 11,800–12,300 | RUB/MT | -350 RUB |
| Siberia | Wheat, domestic | 9,200–10,500 | RUB/MT | Stable |
| January Exports (Forecast) | Total grain exports | 2.7 | Million tons | -0.1 mln t vs prior |
| January Shipments (1–28) | Actual grain shipments | 2.35 | Million tons | In progress |
Domestic Market and Logistics
Domestic wheat prices across Russia were mostly steady, with only localized weakness. Southern Russia’s class 4 wheat (12.5% protein, EXW elevator) traded at 13,500–14,000 rubles per ton, while Central region prices held at 12,000–12,500 rubles per ton. The Volga region was the main outlier, where prices fell by 350 rubles to 11,800–12,300 rubles per ton, returning to late-December levels. In Siberia, wheat traded in the 9,200–10,500 rubles per ton range.
Logistics costs showed mixed moves. Rail delivery prices eased by 50 rubles to 15,800–16,200 rubles per ton, while low-water delivery points were quoted at 14,400–14,600 rubles per ton, providing some relief on internal transport costs and helping maintain export competitiveness.
Export Outlook and Market Sentiment
Rusagrotrans analysts revised their January export forecast down to approximately 2.7 million tons from the previous 2.8 million tons, reflecting slightly weaker-than-expected shipment volumes. Grain shipments from January 1–28 totaled about 2.35 million tons, suggesting some logistical or timing-related constraints rather than a fundamental demand problem.
Overall bias: Bullish. The rise in FOB prices alongside stable-to-lower domestic prices points to improved export margins and firm international demand. While the modest downgrade to January export volumes hints at logistical bottlenecks, these constraints may tighten nearby availability and lend additional support to prices as buyers compete for limited spot supply.
Source: Market Data
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