- Bearish: Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports dropped 54% year-on-year to 46,100 tons in September–December 2025, with Italian demand collapsing 85%.
- Neutral: Turkey has become the leading buyer with 21,600 tons, partially offsetting losses in traditional EU markets.
- Neutral to Bearish: Export recovery hinges on transport subsidies from January 2026 to support the Grain Union’s 300,000-ton full-year forecast.
Kazakhstan Durum Wheat Export Performance
Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports have weakened sharply at the start of the 2025/26 marketing year. Total shipments from September through December 2025 reached just 46,100 tons (excluding EAEU countries), a 54% decline versus the same period a year earlier. Despite an 8.3-fold month-on-month rebound to 30,700 tons in December, volumes still lagged December 2024 by 27%, highlighting a slow start to the season.
Shift in Buyer Composition
Buyer composition has shifted significantly away from Italy, historically Kazakhstan’s key durum outlet. Italian purchases fell 85% year-on-year to 9,400 tons in the first four months of 2025/26. Turkey has stepped in as the primary buyer, importing 21,600 tons—up 27-fold from the prior year. Latvia’s intake dropped 73% to 7,200 tons, while new markets emerged, including Portugal with 2,200 tons and Afghanistan with 2,100 tons.
| Buyer Country | Exports Sep–Dec 2025 (tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total (excl. EAEU) | 46,100 | -54% |
| Italy | 9,400 | -85% |
| Turkey | 21,600 | Up 27-fold |
| Latvia | 7,200 | -73% |
| Portugal | 2,200 | New market |
| Afghanistan | 2,100 | New market |
| December 2025 Monthly Total | 30,700 | -27% vs Dec 2024; 8.3× vs Nov 2025 |
Drivers of Weak Export Performance
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan attributes the export slump to three main factors: abundant harvests in the EU and Canada that reduced import needs in traditional markets; elevated logistics costs on routes to the EU and Turkey; and uncertainty around extending transport subsidies for distant destinations beyond 2026. These pressures have constrained Kazakhstan’s competitiveness at a time when global durum supply is ample.
Outlook and Market Impact
The Grain Union is maintaining its full-year export forecast at 300,000 tons, implying a strong recovery phase from January 2026 onward. To reach this target, Kazakhstan would need to average around 42,000 tons of exports per month through August 2026, well above the pace seen so far. According to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Grain Union’s Analytics Committee, confirmed funding for transport subsidies on distant routes should support this acceleration.
For the broader market, the signal is neutral to slightly bearish: Kazakhstan’s difficulties reflect intense competition and logistics-driven trade flows rather than supply tightness. Strong EU and Canadian crops have saturated key durum markets, while Black Sea and Central Asian exporters face increasing pressure to optimize freight routes and pricing to sustain export volumes.
Source: Market Data
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