- Ukrainian feed wheat: Prices rose UAH 100-200/t week-on-week to UAH 8,600-9,900/t CPT on stronger trader demand and support from corn.
- U.S. wheat futures: Chicago contracts gained 6.6% in January, their largest monthly rise in two years, on dollar weakness and earlier frost concerns.
- Russian exports: First 47,700 t wheat shipment to Cameroon expands Russia’s African footprint to 14 countries, supporting baseline Black Sea demand.
- Sentiment: Mixed to bullish, with overbought signals suggesting limited upside unless new supply or weather shocks emerge.
Market Update
Ukrainian feed wheat prices recorded a modest increase this week, trading in a range of UAH 8,600-9,900/t CPT. Week-on-week, this represents a gain of UAH 100-200/t. According to APK-Inform, the move higher is driven by elevated trader demand and supportive dynamics in the corn market, which is reinforcing feed grain values overall.
In the United States, Chicago wheat futures held around $5.40 per bushel but still delivered their strongest monthly performance in two years, advancing 6.6% over January. The rally was primarily underpinned by a weaker U.S. dollar, which is on track for its steepest monthly decline since June, thereby improving the competitiveness of U.S. wheat exports. Additional support early in the month came from frost concerns after a severe winter storm swept across key production regions.
On the export front, Russian wheat continues to expand its reach in African markets. The St. Petersburg branch of the Federal Center for Assessment of Safety and Quality of Agricultural Products cleared a 47,700-ton wheat shipment to Cameroon from the port of Vysotsk, marking the first Russian wheat delivery to this destination. Since the beginning of 2026, the facility has inspected 199,000 tons of exported grain, of which wheat accounts for 188,000 tons. Over the past two years, Russian wheat shipped from Leningrad Region ports has reached 14 African countries, including Congo, Morocco, Angola, Nigeria, and Israel.
Price & Performance Snapshot
| Market / Commodity | Price / Volume | Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine feed wheat (CPT) | UAH 8,600-9,900/t | Weekly | +UAH 100-200/t |
| U.S. Chicago wheat futures | $5.40/bushel | End-January | +6.6% in January |
| Russia wheat shipment to Cameroon | 47,700 t | Since start of 2026 | First cargo to Cameroon |
| Grain inspected at Vysotsk | 199,000 t (188,000 t wheat) | Since start of 2026 | Ongoing export growth |
Market Sentiment & Outlook
Overall sentiment is mixed to bullish. Concurrent price gains in Ukraine and the U.S. point to tighter feed wheat availability and improved export economics. Ukraine’s modest appreciation reflects firmer domestic and regional feed demand, while U.S. futures are being steered more by macro drivers—chiefly dollar weakness and earlier weather risks—than by immediate changes in global supply.
The Hightower Report highlights that current U.S. wheat contracts are entering “overbought” territory, suggesting that upside may be limited in the absence of new supply disruptions or renewed weather threats. At the same time, Russia’s ongoing diversification into African markets underpins structural demand for Black Sea wheat, potentially intensifying competition in key import regions. Traders should closely track currency moves, especially the U.S. dollar, alongside U.S. weather developments as dominant near-term price catalysts.
Source: Market Data
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