- Kazakhstan–Ethiopia corridor: Ongoing talks position Kazakhstan as a strategic wheat and fertilizer supplier into Ethiopia and broader East Africa.
- U.S. futures firmer: Chicago SRW wheat closed at $198.96/MT (+1.03%), with HRW and HRS also higher on January 29, 2026.
- Black Sea price edge: Russian and Ukrainian wheat at $223–227 FOB remains $5–6/MT below key European origins, supporting export competitiveness.
- EU outlook softer: Lowered EU wheat production and export forecasts offer mild support to global prices but haven’t shifted market tone decisively.
- Overall tone: Neutral to slightly bullish, particularly for Black Sea wheat, as competitive pricing and new trade routes underpin demand.
Kazakhstan–Ethiopia Wheat and Fertilizer Talks
Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, Zhalgas Adilbayev, met with MIDROC agrocluster leadership to explore bilateral trade in wheat and fertilizers. MIDROC, a major Ethiopian investment holding with extensive agricultural operations, signaled strong interest in sourcing high-quality Kazakh wheat and inputs.
Kazakhstan views Ethiopia as a strategic gateway to East African markets, with follow-up meetings planned to formalize supply agreements. If concluded, these deals would diversify Black Sea–linked export routes beyond traditional North African and Middle Eastern destinations.
Global Wheat Futures and Export Activity
| Contract | Price (USD/MT) | Session Move |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago SRW (March) | $198.96 | +1.03% |
| Kansas City HRW (March) | $200.98 | Firm |
| Minneapolis HRS (March) | $214.03 | Firm |
U.S. wheat futures strengthened across all major exchanges on January 29, 2026. Chicago soft red winter (SRW) led with a 1.03% gain to $198.96/MT, while Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) and Minneapolis hard spring (HRS) also posted firmer closes.
| Destination | Weekly U.S. Sales (MT) |
|---|---|
| Japan | 141,300 |
| Mexico | 96,800 |
| Nigeria | 90,500 |
| Other Buyers | 229,601 |
| Total (week ending Jan 22) | 558,201 |
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales reached 558,201 MT for the period ending January 22, 2026, with Japan, Mexico, and Nigeria the leading buyers, highlighting continued demand for U.S. origins despite currency and price dynamics.
European and Black Sea Wheat Pricing
| Region / Contract | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| EU Wheat Production (2025/26) | 134.2 million MT | Revised lower |
| EU Wheat Exports (Forecast) | 29.5 million MT | Down 1.5 million MT |
| Paris MATIF March Milling Wheat | €191.25/MT | ≈ $228.60/MT equivalent |
| Russian / Ukrainian Wheat | $223–227 FOB | $5–6 below European offers |
| French / Romanian Wheat | $231–236 FOB | $8–9 premium to Black Sea |
European wheat markets were mixed as production estimates were cut to 134.2 million MT and export forecasts lowered to 29.5 million MT. Paris MATIF March milling wheat settled at €191.25/MT, equivalent to about $228.60/MT.
Black Sea origins continue to undercut European offers, with Russian and Ukrainian wheat trading at $223–227 FOB. French and Romanian wheat carry an $8–9/MT premium, reinforcing the pricing advantage of Black Sea supplies into price-sensitive import destinations.
Market Impact and Outlook
The Kazakhstan–Ethiopia discussions highlight growing interest in Black Sea–linked supply chains for East Africa. Coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar and lower EU export projections, the overall tone is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat, which remains attractively priced despite modest currency headwinds for non-dollar buyers.
As long as Russian and Ukrainian FOB prices hold the current $5–6/MT discount to European wheat, Black Sea origins are likely to maintain their competitive foothold in North African, Middle Eastern, and potentially East African markets.
Source: Market Data
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