- Neutral to Bearish: Ukrainian sunflower meal exports fell 16% year-on-year to ~1 million tonnes in Sep–Dec 2025/26, among the weakest performances in 15 seasons.
- Bearish EU demand: Shipments to the EU plunged to 237,000 tonnes as Ukraine’s market share collapsed from 63% to 23%, with Argentina gaining a dominant 64% share on stronger price competitiveness.
- Supportive Chinese demand: China imported 671,000 tonnes (2.1x year-on-year), providing key demand support but facing future risk from shifting rapeseed meal trade flows.
- Structural headwinds: Low domestic sunflower processing, alternative EU protein sources, and intensifying competition from Argentina and Canadian rapeseed meal weigh on Ukrainian processing margins.
Market Update: Ukrainian Sunflower Meal Exports Under Pressure
Ukrainian sunflower meal exports weakened notably in the first four months of the 2025/26 marketing season (September–December), with total outbound volumes at approximately 1 million tonnes, a 16% decline versus the same period of 2024/25. This places current performance among the poorest in the past 15 seasons, reflecting reduced sunflower seed processing rates in Ukraine and demand shifts in core destination markets.
The European Union sharply reduced imports of Ukrainian sunflower meal to 237,000 tonnes, the lowest level since 2022/23. Overall EU sunflower meal procurement fell to 724,000 tonnes in July–December from 1.19 million tonnes a year earlier. Argentina captured most of the lost Ukrainian business, expanding its share of EU sunflower meal imports to 64% from 29%, while Ukraine’s share sank from 63% to 23%. Argentinean meal’s superior price competitiveness was the primary driver of this reallocation.
In addition, the EU increasingly relied on alternative protein sources, including higher domestic rapeseed processing and rising rapeseed meal imports from Canada. These shifts reduced the bloc’s structural dependence on sunflower meal and further constrained demand for Ukrainian supplies.
China emerged as the key outlet for Ukrainian sunflower meal this season, importing around 671,000 tonnes in September–December—the largest volume in three seasons and a 2.1-fold increase year-on-year. Chinese buyers also stepped up purchases of Ukrainian rapeseed meal as they sought to replace Canadian-origin supplies. However, with Canada’s import duty on rapeseed meal recently abolished, trade flows are likely to rebalance, potentially moderating China’s incremental demand for Ukrainian product.
Export Volume and Market Share Overview
| Metric | Period | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | Change / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine sunflower meal exports (total) | Sep–Dec | ~1.0 mln t | ~1.19 mln t | -16% year-on-year; among lowest in 15 seasons |
| Ukraine sunflower meal exports to EU | Sep–Dec | 237,000 t | Higher | Lowest since 2022/23; steep decline in demand |
| EU sunflower meal imports (all origins) | Jul–Dec | 724,000 t | 1.19 mln t | Sharp reduction in overall EU sunflower meal intake |
| Ukraine share of EU sunflower meal imports | Jul–Dec | 23% | 63% | Loss of dominant position in EU market |
| Argentina share of EU sunflower meal imports | Jul–Dec | 64% | 29% | Captured majority of EU business on price advantage |
| China imports of Ukrainian sunflower meal | Sep–Dec | 671,000 t | ~319,000 t | 2.1x year-on-year; strongest in three seasons |
Market Analysis and Outlook
The outlook is neutral to bearish for Ukrainian sunflower seed processing margins and sunflower meal export prospects. The erosion of EU market share appears structural, rooted in pricing and competition from Argentina rather than short-lived logistical issues. At the same time, the EU’s deeper integration of alternative protein meals further undermines the role of sunflower meal in regional feed formulations.
While strong Chinese demand has partly cushioned the blow from Europe, the removal of Canadian import duties on rapeseed meal introduces new competitive pressure in Asia. If Ukrainian crushers respond to weaker margins and export opportunities by cutting processing rates, domestic sunflower seed availability could tighten, lending some support to seed prices even as sunflower meal values remain under pressure in export markets.
Source: Market Data
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