- Weather Shock: Extreme heat near 40°C and persistent drought are stressing Argentine corn and soybean crops during critical early growth stages.
- Moisture Deficit: Southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires require 70–80 mm of rain, with no significant precipitation expected until early February.
- High Planting Progress: With 93.1% of corn and 96.2% of soybeans already planted, yield risk is elevated across nearly the full 2025/26 planted area.
- Bullish Black Sea Corn: Potential Argentine production shortfalls are supportive for Black Sea corn demand and prices through Q1 2025.
Argentina Weather and Crop Conditions
Argentina is facing a severe heat wave and drought that is negatively affecting corn and soybean crops for the 2025/26 season. Key producing regions are recording temperatures around 40°C, and meaningful rainfall is not forecast until early February, intensifying stress on recently planted fields.
The situation is particularly acute in southern Santa Fe Province and northern Buenos Aires Province, where agricultural zones need an estimated 70–80 mm of precipitation to normalize soil moisture. These conditions are emerging just as the sowing campaign is nearly complete, heightening the risk to final yields.
Planting Progress and Yield Risk
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 93.1% of the planned corn area and 96.2% of the planned soybean area have already been planted. With such a high share of intended area in the ground, the timing of the drought is especially problematic, as crops enter critical early development phases under thermal and moisture stress.
The combination of extreme temperatures and lack of rainfall threatens to cap yield potential across a large portion of the Argentine corn and soybean belt. As one of the world’s major grain and oilseed exporters, any significant production loss in Argentina has implications for global supply balances and price volatility.
Black Sea Market Impact
The deteriorating outlook for Argentina is fundamentally bullish for Black Sea corn. As a major competitor in global corn export markets, any Argentine shortfall is likely to redirect demand toward alternative origins, with Ukraine and Russia well-positioned to capture incremental buying interest.
Traders should monitor South American weather closely over the coming weeks. Continued crop stress in Argentina could underpin firm pricing for Black Sea corn through Q1 2025 and potentially accelerate forward purchases for February–April shipment windows as importers seek to secure reliable supply.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply