- Kazakhstan imports raised: 2025/26 wheat import forecast increased by 400,000 tons to 1.0 million tons.
- Russian dominance: Around 100% of Kazakhstan’s wheat imports are expected to come from Russia.
- Strong early-season imports: Kazakhstan already imported 168,900 tons of wheat in September–November 2025.
- Exports also rising: Wheat and flour export forecast lifted from 12.1 to 12.55 million tons for 2025/26.
- Market tone: Development is neutral to bullish for Russian wheat and Black Sea export flows.
Kazakhstan Wheat Import Outlook 2025/26
The Grain Union’s analytics department has revised Kazakhstan’s wheat import forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year (September 2025 – August 2026) up to 1 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from previous estimates. According to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytics department, Russia is expected to supply virtually all of this volume, reinforcing its role as Kazakhstan’s primary wheat supplier.
From September to November 2025, Kazakhstan imported 168,900 tons of wheat, predominantly from Russian exporters. The faster import pace reflects robust outbound shipments of wheat and feed flour from Kazakhstan, which has in turn raised domestic import requirements to balance internal supply and demand.
Revised Trade Balance: Imports and Exports
Alongside the higher import forecast, the Grain Union increased its projection for wheat and flour exports in 2025/26 from 12.1 million tons to 12.55 million tons. This suggests that Kazakhstan is leveraging imported Russian wheat to support strong export programs, especially to traditional Central Asian and regional buyers, even as domestic supply conditions tighten.
| Indicator | Previous Forecast | Revised Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan Wheat Imports 2025/26 | 0.6 million tons | 1.0 million tons | +0.4 million tons |
| Kazakhstan Wheat & Flour Exports 2025/26 | 12.1 million tons | 12.55 million tons | +0.45 million tons |
| Wheat Imports (Sep–Nov 2025) | – | 168,900 tons | Actual to date |
| Share of Imports from Russia | – | ~100% | Dominant supplier |
Market Impact: Neutral to Bullish for Russian Wheat
The 67% increase in Kazakhstan’s wheat import forecast underscores stronger-than-expected domestic consumption or export commitments, which requires additional inflows from Russia. For Russian wheat, this is neutral to bullish: it confirms a stable eastward demand corridor into Central Asia and supports continued high export volumes from the Black Sea, potentially tightening availability for other destinations and providing a modest floor under prices.
For Black Sea traders, Kazakhstan’s reliance on Russian supply signals sustained logistical flows and reinforces Russia’s dominant role in the regional wheat balance. While not sharply bullish on its own, the higher import and export projections together point to a firm underlying demand environment for Russian-origin wheat.
Source: Market Data
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