- Neutral: Russia maintained robust 2025 grain exports at 50M tons, including 41M tons of wheat, cementing its role as a key supplier to Africa and the Middle East.
- Bearish: A 21% contraction in agricultural machinery shipments and 31% drop in key equipment segments signal underinvestment risks for future production capacity.
- Neutral: Growing pulses exports (around 3M tons) and active Caspian shipments to Iran show diversification of Russia’s grain export mix and routes.
- Bearish: Ongoing financial stress in the machinery sector and reported losses at major manufacturers may constrain farm modernization and grain quality over time.
Grain Export Overview
Russia exported 50 million tons of grain products in 2025, including 41 million tons of wheat. Export geography covered around 115 countries, with approximately 78% of wheat flows directed to buyers in Africa and the Middle East. Pulses exports expanded to about 3 million tons, supported by an 8 million ton domestic harvest, marking a rapid build-out from minimal volumes only a few years earlier.
Agricultural Machinery Market
The Russian agricultural machinery market contracted for a second straight year in 2025. Domestic shipments fell 21% in value to 155.1 billion rubles, while export values dropped 13% to 15.6 billion rubles. Grain harvester shipments were down 31% to 2,211 units, and tractor deliveries also declined 31% to 2,773 units, with major manufacturers such as Rostselmash reporting net losses despite a 10 billion ruble preferential subsidy program via Rosagroleasing.
Regional Logistics Update
On the Caspian route, Makhachkala Sea Trade Port handled over 23,000 tons of feed grain bound for Iran between January 1–26, 2026. The shipments comprised 21,000 tons of feed corn, 1,600 tons of wheat, and 840 tons of feed barley across nine vessels, all compliant with Iranian phytosanitary requirements, underscoring the growing role of non-Black Sea corridors.
Key Metrics
| Indicator | 2025 / Period Value | Change / Share |
|---|---|---|
| Total grain exports | 50 million tons | — |
| Wheat exports | 41 million tons | 78% to Africa & Middle East |
| Pulses exports | ≈3 million tons | Up from minimal three years ago |
| Agricultural machinery domestic shipments | 155.1 billion RUB | -21% YoY (value) |
| Agricultural machinery exports | 15.6 billion RUB | -13% YoY (value) |
| Grain harvesters shipped | 2,211 units | -31% YoY |
| Tractors shipped | 2,773 units | -31% YoY |
| Rosagroleasing subsidy program | 10 billion RUB (2025) | Equipment transfers -30% YoY |
| Makhachkala–Iran feed grain (Jan 1–26, 2026) | 23,440 tons (approx.) | 21,000 corn; 1,600 wheat; 840 barley |
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Russia’s ability to sustain 50 million tons of grain exports, heavily oriented toward Africa and the Middle East, supports its status as a core Black Sea supplier. However, the sharp 21% decline in agricultural machinery shipments and 31% drop in key equipment categories point to tightening investment in farm assets amid high financing costs and weak profitability. This underinvestment raises risks for future productivity and grain quality. Growing use of the Caspian corridor via Makhachkala for Iranian feed grain underscores logistical diversification beyond traditional Black Sea routes. Overall market sentiment is Neutral to Bearish, with strong current exports offset by mounting concerns over production infrastructure.
Source: Market Data
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