- Bullish: Strong Chinese demand for feed meal is lifting Kazakhstan’s lower-grade wheat prices and creating a price floor despite adequate regional supply.
- Bearish: Falling flour prices in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan are pressuring margins and limiting the ability of Central Asian buyers to match higher Kazakh wheat offers.
Kazakhstan Wheat Market Imbalance
A pronounced price imbalance has emerged in the Central Asian wheat market as domestic prices in Kazakhstan continue to rise while flour prices in key downstream markets move lower. According to Zeinollah Abdumanapov, Chairman of the KazGrain National Exporters Association, local wheat valuations are increasingly out of sync with what regional buyers are willing to pay.
Kazakh farmers are currently asking 85,000 tenge per ton (excluding VAT) for grade 4 wheat, translating to around 90,000 tenge per ton on a VAT-inclusive basis. In contrast, buyers in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan are targeting levels of just $215–$220 per ton for the same grade, creating a widening bid–offer gap and slowing cross-border trade flows.
Chinese Feed Demand and Currency Dynamics
The primary driver of the divergence is robust demand from China for feed meal, which has intensified competition for lower-grade Kazakh wheat (grades 3–4). This demand is stabilizing and lifting prices for feed-quality grain, effectively setting a higher floor for domestic wheat values even though overall supply remains adequate and general demand is only moderate.
Currency movements are adding another layer of complexity. The strengthening of the tenge against the U.S. dollar since November 2025 has eroded the competitiveness of Kazakh export offers when converted into dollars. Exporters are therefore reluctant to accept the $215–$220 per ton price ideas from Central Asian buyers, preferring either to hold stocks or seek better-priced outlets.
Feed Meal Producers Turn to Russian Wheat
With domestic lower-grade wheat increasingly tight and expensive, feed meal producers in Kazakhstan have begun importing lower-grade wheat from Russia. After the application of import VAT, Russian wheat costs are broadly aligned with local prices, making imports a viable option to cover shortfalls without significantly raising input costs.
Producers also benefit from more straightforward VAT refund procedures on exported feed meal, which helps offset some of the financial burden associated with importing raw material. This VAT advantage is enabling feed processors to maintain export-oriented production despite the domestic grain market tension.
Tunisia Tender Supports Global Benchmarks
Outside Central Asia, Tunisia’s State Grain Agency (ODC) has provided a fresh pricing benchmark for seaborne wheat. In a tender concluded on January 28, the agency secured 200,000 tons of wheat for April delivery, split evenly between soft wheat and durum wheat sourced from international suppliers.
Finagrit will deliver four lots of 25,000 tons each of soft wheat at a price of $256.60 per ton C&F, while Amber will supply 100,000 tons of durum wheat at $323.89 per ton C&F. These values signal steady demand for quality wheat in North Africa and help anchor export price ideas for Black Sea and other origins.
Price Overview
| Item / Market | Grade / Type | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan domestic wheat (ex-farm) | Grade 4 | 85,000 tenge/ton (excl. VAT) | Farmer asking price |
| Kazakhstan domestic wheat (incl. VAT) | Grade 4 | 90,000 tenge/ton (incl. VAT) | Equivalent VAT-inclusive level |
| Central Asian buyers (Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan) | Grade 4 import target | $215–$220/ton | Buyer bid range for Kazakh wheat |
| Tunisia ODC tender | Soft wheat | $256.60/ton C&F | 4 × 25,000-ton lots from Finagrit, April delivery |
| Tunisia ODC tender | Durum wheat | $323.89/ton C&F | 100,000 tons from Amber, April 1–15 delivery |
Market Implications
Overall, the setup is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat exporters. Chinese demand for feed meal is underpinning prices for lower-grade wheat in Kazakhstan, benefiting farmers but straining relationships with traditional Central Asian buyers who face weaker flour prices and tighter margins. If the current imbalance persists, regional importers may be forced to accept higher Kazakh price levels or increasingly explore alternative origins, including Russia.
Tunisia’s tender outcome underlines steady demand for both soft and durum wheat in North Africa, providing a supportive reference for export pricing. Market participants should monitor currency moves, Chinese feed demand trends, and any shifts in Central Asian procurement strategies to gauge whether current price structures can be sustained into the next quarter.
Source: Market Data
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