- Export Outlook Raised: SovEcon lifted Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 45.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from its prior estimate and 12% above last season.
- Shipments at Multi‑Year Highs: November exports hit a record 5.2 million tonnes and December reached 4.2 million tonnes, the strongest December volume in eight years.
- Quota Seen as Non‑Binding: The February–July grain export quota of 20 million tonnes is expected to have minimal impact, with wheat exports during this period projected around 16 million tonnes.
- Medium‑Term Tightening: Initial 2026/27 export forecast of 39.6 million tonnes signals a 13% decline vs. 2025/26, reflecting lower expected production of 83.8 million tonnes.
- Sentiment: Near‑term supply looks comfortable, but the projected drop in 2026/27 exports turns the medium‑term outlook neutral to slightly bearish on Russian availability, potentially price‑supportive later on.
Russian Wheat Export Outlook
The SovEcon Analytical Center has raised its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2025/26 season to 45.7 million tonnes. This represents a 12% increase from 40.8 million tonnes in the previous season and exceeds the five-year average of 42.2 million tonnes, underscoring Russia’s continued dominance in global wheat trade.
Recent Shipment Performance
Russian wheat exports have shown exceptional strength in recent months. November shipments reached an all-time high of 5.2 million tonnes, while December volumes totaled 4.2 million tonnes, marking the strongest December result in eight years. This robust pace confirms strong export demand and efficient logistics.
Export Quota and Policy Impact
Russia plans to introduce an export quota of 20 million tonnes for key grains from mid-February through July. SovEcon estimates that wheat exports during this quota window will total around 16 million tonnes, implying the quota will remain comfortably above expected flows. As a result, the measure is viewed as largely symbolic and is not expected to materially constrain exports or disrupt global supply in the near term.
2026/27 Outlook and Supply Risks
Looking further ahead, SovEcon’s first forecast for the 2026/27 season projects Russian wheat exports at 39.6 million tonnes, down 6.1 million tonnes from the current 2025/26 outlook. The decline is tied to expectations of reduced supply, with wheat production forecast at 83.8 million tonnes in 2026. This anticipated tightening suggests that while near-term supply remains ample, markets may start to price in reduced Russian availability as the 2026/27 season approaches.
Market Sentiment
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish for the medium term. The upgraded 2025/26 export outlook and non-binding nature of the upcoming quota support a broadly comfortable global supply picture in the near future. However, the projected 13% drop in 2026/27 exports introduces a tightening bias that could lend support to prices in later months as forward-looking participants adjust to the prospect of lower Russian export volumes.
Source: Market Data
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