- Bullish: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices hit record highs of UAH 28,800-30,000/t CPT on strong processor demand and tight supply.
- Bearish: Power outages, processing suspensions, and cooling export prices for sunflower oil raise downside risks for sustained high price levels.
- Structural: Russia’s growing dominance in global sunflower oil exports intensifies competitive pressure on Ukrainian suppliers.
Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Market Update
Ukrainian sunflower seed prices surged this week to historic highs of UAH 28,800-30,000/t CPT for 48% oil content, supported by strong demand from large processors and favorable crushing margins. While the initial rally aligned with rising sunflower oil prices, processor competition for limited raw material has become the primary driver of the market.
By the end of the week, sunflower oil export prices began to cool, with growth slowing and some quotations edging lower. Despite this moderation, domestic demand for oil remains firm, lending continued support to seed prices. Nevertheless, the divergence between strong raw material prices and softening export values suggests a near-term correction risk.
Processing Disruptions and Infrastructure Risks
Energy infrastructure challenges are becoming a critical constraint for Ukraine’s oilseed sector. Rolling power outages have forced multiple processing plants to halt operations, with small-scale facilities particularly vulnerable as generator-based processing is often unprofitable. The southern and frontline regions, where infrastructure damage is most severe, face the harshest disruptions.
These operational interruptions are already tightening domestic availability of both sunflower oil and meal. Prolonged outages could limit processors’ ability to capitalize on high seed prices, compress margins, and reduce exportable supplies, amplifying market volatility in the coming weeks.
Black Sea Export Landscape and Russian Dominance
In the wider Black Sea region, Russia has solidified its position as the leading global exporter of sunflower oil, accounting for 36% of world exports in the 2024-2025 season. Officials project this share could exceed 40% in the current marketing year, underscoring Russia’s growing influence over global pricing and flows.
Russia dominates supply into several key demand centers, providing 55% of India’s sunflower oil imports, 78% of China’s, 92% of Iran’s, and 68% of Turkey’s. However, consultancy IKAR expects Russian sunflower oil exports to decline to around 16 million tons by season’s end, a three-year low, amid drought impacts in southern growing regions. Any reduction in Russian export availability could offer medium-term support to global prices, but Ukraine’s infrastructure constraints may limit its ability to capture incremental market share.
Market Sentiment and Trading Implications
Overall sentiment in the Ukrainian sunflower complex is mixed to bearish. Record-high seed prices are supportive for farmers but pressure crushers, while weakening export prices and frequent power outages pose clear downside risks. Market participants should closely track the pace of energy infrastructure repairs, operational status of processing plants, and signs of a potential price correction in the raw seed segment as margins normalize.
| Item | Region / Period | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seed price (48% oil, CPT) | Ukraine | UAH 28,800-30,000/t |
| Russian share of global sunflower oil exports | 2024-2025 season | 36% |
| Projected Russian global export share | Current season (forecast) | >40% |
| Russia’s share of India’s sunflower oil imports | Current season | 55% |
| Russia’s share of China’s sunflower oil imports | Current season | 78% |
| Russia’s share of Iran’s sunflower oil imports | Current season | 92% |
| Russia’s share of Turkey’s sunflower oil imports | Current season | 68% |
| Russian sunflower oil exports | End of current season (IKAR forecast) | 16 million tons (3-year low) |
Source: Market Data
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