- Logistics boost: Novorossiysk wheat loadings jumped 74% week-on-week to 278.2 thousand tons, signaling improved port performance and solid demand from North Africa.
- Demand concentration: Egypt and Sudan absorbed 64.7% of weekly wheat shipments, underscoring the port’s heavy reliance on North African buyers.
- Rising competition: Record Canadian wheat output and higher export forecasts are increasing competition with Black Sea origin in China and Bangladesh.
- Price pressure risk: Expanded Canadian presence in overlapping Asian markets could weigh on Black Sea CIF quotations despite strong Russian shipment volumes.
Novorossiysk Wheat and Barley Loadings
Weekly wheat loadings at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk surged to 278.2 thousand tons, up 74% from 159.6 thousand tons the previous week, reflecting a strong rebound in port activity. Egypt was the largest destination with 104.1 thousand tons, followed by Sudan with 75.9 thousand tons, together accounting for nearly two-thirds of total wheat shipments. In addition, the port handled 22.4 thousand tons of barley over the same period.
| Port / Destination | Commodity | Period | Volume (thousand tons) | Change vs. Previous Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorossiysk (total) | Wheat | Last week | 278.2 | +74% vs. 159.6 thousand tons |
| Novorossiysk → Egypt | Wheat | Last week | 104.1 | Largest buyer |
| Novorossiysk → Sudan | Wheat | Last week | 75.9 | Second-largest buyer |
| Novorossiysk (total) | Barley | Last week | 22.4 | N/A |
Canadian Wheat Export Outlook
Canada’s Agriculture and Food Canada (AAFC) lifted its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 28.6 million tons, following Statistics Canada’s revision of domestic production to a record 40 million tons. As of 11 January, Canadian exporters had shipped around 12.6 million tons of wheat since August, up 8% year-on-year, highlighting a strong pace of export sales.
| Season / Period | Metric | Volume (million tons) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 (AAFC) | Wheat exports (forecast) | 28.6 | Raised by 0.2 million tons |
| 2025/26 (Statistics Canada) | Wheat production | 40.0 | Record output (revised in December) |
| Aug–11 Jan (current season) | Wheat exports (shipped) | 12.6 | +8% year-on-year |
| 2026/27 (AAFC) | Wheat production (forecast) | 35.0 | Expected decline from record level |
| 2026/27 (AAFC) | Wheat exports (forecast) | 28.5 | Exports remain robust despite lower output |
Canadian Competition in Key Asian Markets
Canadian wheat has expanded aggressively into markets that traditionally overlap with Russian supply. Between August and November, Canada shipped 1.1 million tons of wheat to China, nearly a five-fold increase year-on-year, and 902.8 thousand tons to Bangladesh, close to an eight-fold rise. This growing presence in Asian destinations threatens to erode Black Sea market share and could cap price gains for Russian exporters.
| Destination | Period | Canadian Wheat Exports (million tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Aug–Nov | 1.1 | ~5x increase |
| Bangladesh | Aug–Nov | 0.903 | ~8x increase |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
Neutral to Bearish: The rebound in Novorossiysk wheat loadings confirms healthy nearby demand, particularly from Egypt and Sudan, and points to improved port logistics. However, sustained and growing Canadian export capacity into overlapping Asian markets raises the risk of increased competition for Russian wheat. This is likely to exert downside pressure on Black Sea CIF quotations in China and Bangladesh, especially if Canadian exporters pursue aggressive pricing to defend or expand market share. Traders should closely track Canadian shipment pace, forward sales, and relative FOB/CIF spreads when positioning in Black Sea wheat.
Source: Market Data
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