- Exports surge: Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports jumped 70% year-on-year in H1 2025/26 to 340,000 tonnes, supported by a sharp rise in domestic crushing to 800,000 tonnes.
- EU demand contracts: Shipments to the EU slumped to 71,000 tonnes from 171,000 tonnes amid strong local harvests and mounting competition from Canadian suppliers.
- China leads buying: China became the top destination for the first time, taking a record 155,000 tonnes, but this new outlet remains vulnerable to shifts in China-Canada trade relations.
- Margins under pressure: Weak domestic demand and global oversupply are forcing Ukrainian exporters to discount aggressively, creating a neutral-to-bearish price outlook.
Rapeseed Meal Export Performance
Ukraine’s rapeseed meal exports posted strong volume growth in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year (July–December), reaching 340,000 tonnes—up 70% year-on-year and marking the second-best first-half result on record after 374,000 tonnes in 2023/24, according to APK-Inform.
This export expansion was driven by a significant increase in domestic processing, with rapeseed crush estimated at 800,000 tonnes over the period. The 10% export duty on rapeseeds continues to divert raw seed away from export channels toward local crushers, while improved processing margins have further incentivized higher utilization of existing capacity.
Shifting Export Destinations
The geographic profile of Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports has shifted noticeably. Traditional European Union buyers cut imports sharply, with volumes falling to 71,000 tonnes from 171,000 tonnes a year earlier. This pullback reflects both ample EU rapeseed supply and intensified competition from Canadian meal, which supplied around 436,000 tonnes to European buyers over the same period.
In contrast, Ukrainian exporters pivoted successfully toward Asian demand. China emerged as the leading destination for the first time on record, taking 155,000 tonnes of Ukrainian rapeseed meal and absorbing much of the volume displaced from the EU market.
Market Fundamentals and Price Outlook
Beneath the headline export growth, market fundamentals appear neutral to bearish. The policy-driven expansion in crushing capacity has created a surplus of meal that now exceeds sustainable demand at prevailing price levels. With domestic consumption subdued, producers and traders are relying on aggressive discounting to clear inventories and free up storage space.
The structural loss of EU market share is particularly concerning, as Canadian competition in Europe now looks entrenched. At the same time, the recent gains in China may prove fragile if improving China–Canada trade relations and potential duty reductions allow Canadian meal to re-enter that market more competitively.
Persistent pressure on Ukrainian oilseed products is also evident beyond rapeseed: soybean exports to Egypt have dropped sixfold to 38,000 tonnes, underscoring wider competitiveness challenges for Black Sea-origin oilseeds and meals in key importing regions.
Key Volume Indicators
| Indicator | H1 2025/26 | H1 2024/25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine rapeseed meal exports (total) | 340,000 t | 200,000 t | +70% |
| Ukraine rapeseed processing (crush) | 800,000 t | n/a | Higher |
| Rapeseed meal exports to EU | 71,000 t | 171,000 t | -58% |
| Rapeseed meal exports to China | 155,000 t | Minimal | Record high |
| Canadian rapeseed meal exports to EU | 436,000 t | n/a | Strong |
| Ukraine soybean exports to Egypt | 38,000 t | ~228,000 t | -~83% (sixfold drop) |
Trading and Risk Considerations
Price risks for Ukrainian rapeseed meal are skewed to the downside in the near term. Any softening of Chinese demand or renewed competition from Canadian origin in Asia could force further discounts, especially if crushing volumes remain elevated. Traders should closely track policy and trade developments between Canada and China, as well as EU meal import dynamics, to gauge export outlet flexibility and potential basis volatility for Black Sea rapeseed meal.
Source: Market Data
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