- Policy Signal: Russia sets February 2026 sunflower oil export duty at 9,495 rubles/MT, keeping government pressure on export flows.
- Supply Risk: Krasnodar Krai sunflower oil output fell 19% in 2025 to 900,000 MT due to adverse weather and lower yields.
- Meal Support: Sunflower meal export duty stays at zero for a second month, supporting feed and by‑product exports.
- Price Outlook: Reduced production plus active export duties create a mildly bullish backdrop for Black Sea sunflower oil prices.
Market Update
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has set the sunflower oil export duty at 9,495 rubles per metric ton, effective from February 1, 2026. At the same time, the export duty on sunflower meal will remain at zero for the second consecutive month, preserving cost competitiveness for Russian meal exports in global feed markets.
Production conditions in key growing areas deteriorated over the past season. Krasnodar Krai, one of Russia’s main sunflower oil production hubs, produced around 900,000 tons of sunflower oil in 2025, a 19% decline compared with 2024. According to the regional Ministry of Agriculture, unfavorable weather—particularly insufficient soil moisture and low relative humidity—was the primary driver of the downturn.
Weather stress significantly damaged the sunflower crop. The region lost 6,900 hectares of sunflower plantings, and the gross sunflower harvest dropped to 655,000 tons, a 29% year-on-year decrease. Average yields were reported at 13.9 centners per hectare, underscoring the scale of agronomic losses across the sunflower belt in Krasnodar Krai.
Key Figures
| Indicator | Period / Detail | Value | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil Export Duty | From Feb 1, 2026 | 9,495 rubles/MT | Policy level (no prior value stated) |
| Sunflower Meal Export Duty | From Feb 1, 2026 | 0 rubles/MT | Unchanged (second month at zero) |
| Krasnodar Sunflower Oil Production | 2025 | 900,000 MT | -19% vs 2024 |
| Krasnodar Gross Sunflower Harvest | 2025 | 655,000 MT | -29% vs 2024 |
| Lost Sunflower Area | 2025 | 6,900 ha | Loss due to weather |
| Average Yield | 2025 | 13.9 c/ha | Weather-impacted |
Market Analysis
The maintained sunflower oil export duty highlights ongoing state intervention in Russia’s vegetable oil trade, limiting some export competitiveness just as domestic supplies tighten. In contrast, the zero export duty on sunflower meal supports the outflow of by-products into the global feed market, particularly to regions dependent on high-protein meals.
The sharp production decline in Krasnodar Krai, a core sunflower-growing and crushing region, is likely to pressure domestic crushing margins as plants compete for a smaller seed pool. Lower seed and oil availability from this hub can reduce exportable sunflower oil volumes out of the Black Sea, tightening regional balance sheets.
With weather-driven supply losses combining with active export duties on oil, the short- to medium-term outlook for Black Sea sunflower oil prices tilts mildly bullish. Importers may face firmer offer levels, while domestic Russian processors navigate a more constrained raw material environment amid continued policy-driven trade frictions.
Source: Market Data
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