- Bullish: Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports surged 70% in July–December 2025/26 to 340,000 tonnes, supported by higher domestic crushing of 800,000 tonnes and strong Chinese demand.
- Bearish: EU imports collapsed amid Canadian competition, while weak domestic consumption and the risk of China reverting to Canadian supplies create structural downside for margins and export demand.
China Overtakes EU in Ukrainian Rapeseed Meal Imports
Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports reached approximately 340,000 tonnes in the first half of the 2025/26 season (July–December), a 70% year-on-year increase and the second-highest volume on record after 374,000 tonnes in 2023/24. The surge reflects expanded domestic processing, with rapeseed crush climbing to around 800,000 tonnes, supported by a 10% export duty on rapeseed and improved crushing margins that favour value-added exports.
China emerged as the dominant growth market, importing a record 155,000 tonnes and overtaking the EU as Ukraine’s largest rapeseed meal buyer for the first time. Chinese demand has been underpinned by a domestic rapeseed meal shortage and difficulties fully replacing lost Canadian supplies, prompting a greater reliance on imports from Ukraine alongside established origins such as Russia, India, and the UAE.
In contrast, Ukraine’s traditional EU outlet contracted sharply, with shipments slumping to 71,000 tonnes from 171,000 tonnes a year earlier. A larger EU rapeseed harvest and aggressive Canadian competition effectively closed this market, as Canada supplied about 436,000 tonnes of rapeseed meal to the EU by January 18 versus nearly zero in the previous season. Domestic Ukrainian demand remains weak, forcing processors to discount in order to avoid inventory accumulation.
Export and Market Structure Overview
| Indicator | 2024/25 (Jul–Dec) | 2025/26 (Jul–Dec) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports | ≈200,000 t | ≈340,000 t | +70% |
| Ukrainian rapeseed processing | n/a | ≈800,000 t | Higher crushing |
| Exports to EU | 171,000 t | 71,000 t | −100,000 t |
| Canadian rapeseed meal exports to EU (by Jan 18) | Near zero | 436,000 t | Strong increase |
| Exports to China | Lower / not record | 155,000 t | Record level |
Market Sentiment and Risk Factors
Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish. Ukraine has successfully redirected rapeseed meal flows toward China, but this pivot carries concentration risk. Any improvement in China–Canada trade relations or duty reductions that restore Canadian competitiveness could quickly erode Ukrainian market share. The sharp loss of EU demand to Canadian origin, combined with structurally weak domestic consumption and ongoing pressure on crushing margins, underscores the fragility of current export-led growth.
Processors should closely monitor policy and trade developments between China and Canada and avoid basing long-term capacity or procurement decisions on Chinese demand alone. Maintaining diversification of outlets and flexibility in production plans will be critical to managing potential downside if Chinese buying slows or rebalances toward traditional suppliers.
Source: Market Data
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