Argentina corn forecast rises to 57.9 Mt

• Forecast Raised: Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop is now projected at 57.9 million tonnes, up 6% year-on-year.
• Weather Risk: A 50–70 mm rainfall deficit and persistent hot, dry conditions threaten late-planted corn yields.
• Global Supply: Higher Argentine output slightly increases global corn supply pressure, weighing on prices.
• Black Sea Competition: Larger Argentine exports in early 2026 could intensify competition for Black Sea corn in key import markets.
• Uncertainty Factor: Continued dryness could trim yields and support prices, shifting demand back toward Black Sea origins.

Argentina Corn Production Outlook

LSEG analysts have raised Argentina’s corn production forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year to 57.9 million tonnes, a 6% increase from the previous season. The revision reflects a larger-than-expected planted area, even as weather risks begin to emerge across the core corn belt.

Weather and Crop Condition Risks

Key producing provinces, including Buenos Aires, La Pampa, Santa Fe, Córdoba, and San Luis, have recorded a 50–70 mm rainfall deficit since January. While moderate temperatures and initially high soil moisture have so far limited visible crop damage, soil moisture is deteriorating, particularly in late-planted corn fields.

Forecasts point to continued hot and dry conditions across the southern Pampa region for the next two weeks, with Buenos Aires expected to see the driest pattern. Western and northern growing areas of Córdoba and Santa Fe may experience some relief from cooler temperatures and scattered rainfall, but overall February conditions in Argentina are projected to be cooler and drier than normal.

Corn planting density remains near average, yet analysts caution that yield prospects could deteriorate quickly if the dry spell persists, especially in later-planted fields entering critical growth stages.

Market Impact and Black Sea Corn Implications

The higher Argentine corn forecast modestly boosts global supply expectations, creating a neutral to slightly bearish backdrop for international corn prices. However, the emerging weather-related yield risks introduce significant uncertainty. If dryness in the southern Pampa intensifies and yield losses materialize, the current supply pressure could ease and provide price support.

For Black Sea exporters, a larger Argentine crop raises competitive pressure in shared import markets, especially in early 2026 when Argentine corn typically enters export channels at scale. Should Argentina maintain the current production outlook, Black Sea origin corn may face tighter margins and increased competition. Conversely, if Argentine yields fall, import demand could tilt back toward Black Sea supplies during the second half of 2025, partially offsetting the current bearish bias for the region.

Source: Market Data