- Zero duties extended: Russia will keep export duties at zero for wheat, barley, and corn from January 28 to February 3, the third straight week for wheat.
- Mixed price action: Wheat and barley indicative prices eased, while corn strengthened on tighter supply-demand fundamentals.
- Stable base prices: Ruble-denominated base prices remain unchanged, giving exporters clearer margin visibility.
- Bullish export outlook: The zero-duty policy supports Russian grain competitiveness and export flows during a key shipping window.
Russia Extends Zero Export Duties on Grains
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has confirmed that export duties on wheat, corn, and barley will remain at zero for the period from January 28 to February 3. For wheat, this is the third consecutive week of zero duties, following the introduction of the current stance on January 14. The policy continues to enhance Russia’s competitiveness in global grain markets during a seasonally active export period.
Grain Price Movements
| Commodity | Indicative Price (Current) | Indicative Price (Previous) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat & Meslin | $226.30/mt | $227.70/mt | -$1.40 |
| Barley | $201.20/mt | $203.80/mt | -$2.60 |
| Corn | $203.30/mt | $199.60/mt | +$3.70 |
| Commodity | Base Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 18,000/mt | RUB |
| Barley | 17,875/mt | RUB |
| Corn | 17,875/mt | RUB |
Indicative wheat and meslin prices eased slightly to $226.30/mt from $227.70/mt, and barley slipped to $201.20/mt from $203.80/mt. Corn prices moved higher to $203.30/mt from $199.60/mt, diverging from the softer tone in wheat and barley. Base prices used for calculating export duties remain unchanged at 18,000 rubles/mt for wheat and 17,875 rubles/mt for both barley and corn.
The export duty calculation continues to rely on registered export contract prices on the exchange and the Bank of Russia’s average USD/RUB rate over the five business days preceding the calculation date. With indicative prices and base values at current levels, the resulting formula still produces a zero duty across all three grains.
Market Impact and Trading Implications
Market bias remains bullish for Russian grain exports. The extension of zero export duties reinforces Russia’s position as a low-cost supplier, encouraging continued robust shipments during a key export window. Softening wheat prices may reflect weaker international demand or increased competition, while firmer corn values point to comparatively tighter fundamentals in that segment.
Unchanged ruble-based base prices offer a degree of stability for exporters when planning margins and hedging strategies. However, traders should closely monitor any signals from the Ministry of Agriculture regarding duty levels beyond early February. A reintroduction of positive duties would immediately affect freight bookings, forward sales, and overall export economics for wheat, barley, and corn.
Source: Market Data
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