- U.S. wheat exports surge: Weekly sales hit 618,076 MT, the highest in nine weeks and triple last year’s volume, as winter storms disrupt operations.
- Futures rally across grains: CBOT March wheat climbed 2.72% to $194.55/ton, while corn and soybeans posted multi-year and marketing-year export highs.
- Weather and logistics risk: Severe snowstorms in key U.S. production regions delay USDA data and could temporarily constrain export logistics.
- Global price divergence: European wheat trades at roughly a 15% premium to U.S. values, enhancing competitiveness for Black Sea exporters in price-sensitive markets.
- Robust demand from Asia & Mexico: Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and China lead strong corn and soybean purchases, underscoring firm international demand.
Market Overview
U.S. wheat export sales jumped to 618,076 metric tons for the week ending January 15, marking the strongest weekly performance in nine weeks and tripling volumes recorded a year earlier. The surge coincided with a severe winter storm across Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the northeastern United States, which disrupted operations and delayed USDA data releases but did not dampen underlying demand.
Export interest was broad-based: Mexico booked 115,900 metric tons of U.S. wheat, South Korea purchased 95,500 metric tons, and undisclosed destinations accounted for an additional 130,600 metric tons. The combination of robust sales and weather-related logistical risk provided a firm underpinning for U.S. futures across all major wheat exchanges.
U.S. Futures and Export Performance
On Friday, January 23, 2026, U.S. wheat futures rallied across the Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis exchanges. Corn and soybeans also advanced, supported by strong export sales and tightening global balance sheet expectations.
| Contract | Exchange / Type | Month | Price | Per Bushel | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | CBOT Soft Red Winter | March | $194.55/ton | $5.29-1/2/bu | +14 cents |
| Wheat | Kansas City Hard Red Winter | March | $198.69/ton | $5.40-3/4/bu | +15 cents |
| Wheat | Minneapolis Hard Spring | March | $211.27/ton | $5.75/bu | +1.5 cents |
| Corn | CBOT | March | $169.49/ton | — | +1.53% |
Corn export sales were particularly strong at 4.01 million metric tons, the highest weekly total since March 2021 and roughly double year-ago levels. Japan (836,700 MT), South Korea (751,500 MT), and Mexico (422,600 MT) were the leading buyers, driving March corn futures to multi-year highs.
Soybean export sales reached a marketing-year record of 2.45 million tons. China remained the dominant buyer, taking 1.304 million tons, which represents a 63.97% increase compared with the same period last year. This strength in oilseed flows underscored the broader bullish tone across the U.S. grain complex.
Global Price Comparison
European grain futures moved higher in tandem with U.S. markets, but price levels remain notably above U.S. benchmarks, reinforcing transatlantic spreads and shaping trade flows.
| Region | Commodity | Contract / Month | Price | USD Equivalent | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Wheat (SRW) | CBOT March | $194.55/ton | $194.55/ton | +2.72% |
| European Union | Milling Wheat | MATIF March | €191.00/ton | $224.43/ton | +1.33% |
| European Union | Corn | MATIF March | €193.75/ton | $227.66/ton | +1.32% |
At roughly $224.43/ton, Paris milling wheat is trading at about a 15% premium to CBOT March soft red winter wheat, currently at $194.55/ton. This gap enhances the relative attractiveness of U.S. and Black Sea origins for price-sensitive buyers in North Africa and the Middle East.
Regional Production and Weather Impacts
In South America, Argentine corn planting has reached 93% completion. However, crop ratings slipped as dry weather weighed on conditions, with the share classified as normal to excellent falling to 89% from 95% the previous week. Any further deterioration could tighten exportable supplies later in the season.
In the United States, the severe snowstorm affecting Texas, Oklahoma, and northeastern states is disrupting transportation and terminal logistics. While the immediate effect has been a delay in USDA export reports, sustained logistical bottlenecks could temporarily slow physical shipments even as forward sales remain strong.
Implications for Black Sea Exporters
The sharp increase in U.S. wheat export sales points to tightening global wheat availability and underpins international prices. Yet, with European wheat holding a 15% premium over U.S. values, Russian and Ukrainian exporters remain well-positioned to capture incremental demand from cost-conscious buyers, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East.
Short-term disruptions in U.S. logistics due to severe weather may amplify this effect, creating a window in which Black Sea origins can expand market share. Traders should watch closely to see whether the current U.S. export surge evolves into a sustained trend or reflects a one-off spike in purchases ahead of potential shipping delays.
Source: Market Data
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