- Bearish sunflower & soybean flows: Russian oil & fat exports fell 12% YoY to 10.8 million tons in 2025, with sunflower oil down 22% and soybean oil also lower, pressuring Black Sea freight demand.
- Mixed grain outlook: Rostov Region grain exports dropped 19.8% season-to-date, cutting cargo availability, but price corrections and 2026 rebound expectations may stabilize freight.
- Bullish rapeseed logistics: Rapeseed complex exports surged nearly 30% YoY to 1.5 million tons, moving Russia to #2 globally and boosting demand for export logistics, especially on China routes.
- Value resilience: Export value for oil products rose 5.5% despite lower volumes, supported by higher global vegetable oil prices.
Russian Oil & Fat Export Performance in 2025
Russia’s oil and fat product exports totaled 10.8 million tons in 2025, a 12% year-on-year decline driven primarily by weaker sunflower and soybean oil shipments. A reduced oilseed harvest and a stronger ruble squeezed crush margins, limiting exportable supplies even as global vegetable oil prices rose.
| Product | Export Volume 2025 (million tons) | Export Volume 2024 (million tons) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total oil & fat products | 10.8 | ≈12.3 | -12% |
| Sunflower oil | 4.6 | 5.8 | -22% |
| Soybean oil | 0.65 | 0.762 | -14.7% |
| Rapeseed complex exports | 1.5 | 1.155 | +29.7% |
| Rapeseed oil production | 1.55 | 1.29 | +20.2% |
Sunflower oil exports fell sharply to 4.6 million tons from a 2024 peak of 5.8 million tons. Processors faced negative crush margins due to tight raw material availability and ruble strength, constraining export flows. Soybean oil shipments also declined to 650,000 tons from 762,000 tons a year earlier, as restricted GMO soybean imports in the first half of 2025 limited feedstock supply.
In contrast, the rapeseed segment recorded strong growth. Exports rose to 1.5 million tons (+29.7% YoY), with production up to 1.55 million tons from 1.29 million tons in 2024. This expansion allowed Russia to move from third to second place globally in rapeseed oil exports, underpinning higher demand for specialized oilseed logistics.
Despite lower volumes, export value for oil products increased by 5.5%, reflecting firm international vegetable oil prices. This price support partially offset revenue losses from weaker physical flows but did not fully mitigate the pressure on crush and freight utilization.
Key Export Destinations & Outlook
China retained its dominant position, taking 87% of Russian rapeseed oil exports. India remained the leading destination for sunflower and soybean oil, while Iran rose to the second-largest buyer of sunflower oil, displacing Turkey. Turkey still featured prominently across both oil and grain flows but with reduced volumes in some segments.
The Oil and Fat Union expects a recovery in 2026, projecting an 11% increase in total export volumes. Soybean oil exports are forecast to nearly double from 2025 levels, while rapeseed oil may expand by a further 25%, reinforcing the positive outlook for oilseed-related logistics and export infrastructure.
Rostov Region Grain Exports
Grain exports from Russia’s Rostov Region weakened notably. In December 2025, shipments totaled 1.27 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year. From the start of the grain season in July 2025 through December, volumes fell 19.8% versus the same period in 2024, signaling a broad-based slowdown in regional grain export activity.
| Metric | Volume | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Rostov grain exports, December 2025 | 1.27 million tons | -15.3% |
| Rostov grain exports, July–Dec 2025 (season-to-date) | n/a | -19.8% |
| Through regional seaports (Dec 2025) | 764,000 tons | n/a |
| Through port of Kavkaz (Dec 2025) | 509,000 tons | n/a |
| EU grain exports 2025/26 (projected) | 32.5 million tons | vs. 27.9 million tons prior season |
Shipments moved via regional seaports (764,000 tons) and the port of Kavkaz (509,000 tons), supplying primarily Turkey, Egypt, and Morocco. However, demand from key buyers dropped sharply, with Turkey’s purchases down around 60%, Saudi Arabia’s down 50%, and Egypt’s down 48%, reflecting both pricing and competitive pressures.
Increased competition from the European Union weighed heavily on Russian grain exports. Projected EU grain shipments of 32.5 million tons in 2025/26, up from 27.9 million tons the previous season, eroded Russia’s price advantage. Russian wheat briefly traded at a $6 per ton premium to European origins in early 2026 before prices corrected, underscoring tighter margins for Russian exporters.
Freight & Logistics Implications
Sunflower oil freight remains under pressure. The 22% decline in sunflower oil exports, combined with weaker soybean oil flows, directly reduces cargo availability from Black Sea ports. Even with duty moratoriums and supportive global prices, processors’ negative margins limit the upside for near-term freight demand in this segment.
Grain freight shows a mixed outlook. The 19.8% season-to-date decline in Rostov Region grain shipments signals reduced utilization for bulk carriers loading in the area. However, anticipated price normalization and expectations for stronger 2026 shipments may gradually support a recovery in vessel demand, provided EU competition does not intensify further.
Rapeseed logistics are a bright spot. Nearly 30% growth in rapeseed complex exports and Russia’s move to the second-largest global rapeseed oil exporter create sustained demand for export capacity, particularly on routes to China, which absorbs 87% of these volumes. Forecast 25% growth in 2026 points to continued demand for specialized oilseed handling, storage, and shipping.
Across all flows, logistics costs remain elevated due to sanctions, ruble volatility, and broader supply chain disruptions. These structural factors will keep freight rates and route optimization in focus throughout 2026 as exporters seek to preserve margins in a highly competitive global market.
Source: Market Data
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