- Policy: Russia will keep export duties on wheat, barley, and corn at 0% from January 28 through February 3, 2026.
- Exports: The zero-duty regime supports continued competitiveness of Black Sea grain in global markets.
- Risk: Weekly reviews mean traders face ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rapid changes in export economics.
Russia Extends Zero Export Duties on Key Grains
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has confirmed that export duties on wheat will remain at 0% for the period from January 28 through February 3, 2026. The zero-duty policy is also extended to barley and corn exports for the same seven-day window, maintaining Russia’s current stance on grain export taxation.
The duties apply to all qualifying Russian grain exports during this period and will be reassessed before the February 3 deadline. This rolling weekly review structure allows authorities to respond quickly to shifts in domestic supply, prices, and export demand.
Market Impact and Trade Implications
Market Impact: Neutral to Mildly Bullish for Black Sea Wheat Exports
The continuation of zero export duties preserves Russia’s cost advantage in global grain markets, particularly for Black Sea wheat. With no additional tax burden on shipments, exporters can maintain competitive pricing into key importing regions, supporting steady export flows.
However, the short, week-long validity of the duty decision underlines the authorities’ caution. Weekly reviews suggest policymakers are closely tracking domestic balance sheets and export performance. For traders and buyers, this structure introduces policy risk: freight and forward sales may need to factor in the potential for swift changes in export costs if duties are reintroduced or adjusted after February 3.
Overall, while the current signal favors continued strong Black Sea participation in global grain trade, market participants should remain alert to upcoming review dates and potential shifts in Russia’s export tax framework.
Source: Market Data
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