- Bearish: India’s total sunflower oil imports fell 12% year-on-year to $3 billion amid softer vegetable oil prices.
- Bullish for Russia’s share: Despite a 28% revenue decline, Russia retained its position as India’s leading sunflower oil supplier.
- Competitive pressure: Argentina more than doubled sunflower oil exports to India to $697.8 million, tightening competition for Black Sea origins.
- Market risk: The sharp November 2025 drop in Russian soybean oil shipments to India signals potential shifts in buying patterns or logistics issues.
Russia Retains Lead in India’s Sunflower Oil Market
Russia remained India’s top sunflower oil supplier in January–November 2025, even as export revenues to the market fell 28% year-on-year to $1.3 billion, down from $1.8 billion in the same period of 2024, according to India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
India’s overall sunflower oil import demand also contracted, with total purchases easing to $3 billion from $3.4 billion a year earlier, reflecting a weaker vegetable oil import environment and lower global price levels.
Argentina Gains Ground in Sunflower Oil
Argentina strengthened its presence in India’s sunflower oil market, more than doubling export revenues to $697.8 million in the first eleven months of 2025, up from $340.9 million a year earlier. This firmly established Argentina as the second-largest supplier to India, intensifying competition for Black Sea exporters.
Soybean Oil Flows: Russia Edges Up, Argentina Still Dominant
In soybean oil, Russia modestly increased shipments to India, with export values rising to $223.8 million in January–November 2025 from $213.2 million a year before. However, November 2025 saw a sharp month-on-month setback, with exports plunging to $1.6 million compared with $23.4 million in November 2024.
Argentina continued to dominate India’s soybean oil imports, supplying $2.07 billion over the eleven-month period. This was still lower than the $2.53 billion recorded in the previous year, underscoring the broader downtrend in India’s vegetable oil import bill.
Key Trade Flows: Sunflower and Soybean Oil to India
| Commodity | Supplier | Jan–Nov 2024 | Jan–Nov 2025 | Change (Value) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | Russia | $1.8 billion | $1.3 billion | -28% |
| Sunflower oil | Argentina | $340.9 million | $697.8 million | ≈+105% |
| Sunflower oil (total India imports) | All suppliers | $3.4 billion | $3 billion | -12% |
| Soybean oil | Russia | $213.2 million | $223.8 million | +4.9% |
| Soybean oil | Argentina | $2.53 billion | $2.07 billion | -18.2% |
| Soybean oil (Russia, November only) | Russia | $23.4 million | $1.6 million | -93.2% |
Market Implications for Black Sea Exporters
The contraction in India’s vegetable oil import bill, together with Russia’s reduced sunflower oil revenues, highlights pressure from lower global prices and tighter margins on Black Sea origins. Holding market share at lower values suggests discounts or more competitive FOB levels from Russia.
Argentina’s aggressive gains in sunflower oil raise questions about delivered cost competitiveness for Black Sea exporters into India, particularly on freight and financing terms. Meanwhile, the steep November drop in Russian soybean oil flows signals potential changes in Indian procurement strategies or temporary logistical constraints affecting Black Sea shipments, and merits close monitoring.
Source: Market Data
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