Key Takeaways
- Corn harvest in Ukraine has reached 28.914 million tonnes (92% of forecast), with limited upside to final volumes.
- Weekly harvesting pace has slowed sharply, signaling the campaign is effectively in its final stage.
- Average corn yield stands at 71.7 centners/ha across 4.033 million ha, supporting stable export availability.
- Total grain and legume production is at 59.067 million tonnes from 11.15 million ha (96% of planned area).
- Market sentiment is neutral as production aligns with prior expectations, limiting major price surprises.
Market Update
Ukraine’s corn harvesting campaign is nearing completion, with the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture reporting a gross corn harvest of 28.914 million tonnes as of January 22. Over the past week, only 52,000 tonnes were threshed from 5,800 hectares, indicating the campaign is in its closing phase as winter conditions limit further fieldwork.
Corn has been harvested on 4.033 million hectares, or 92% of the forecasted area, with an average yield of 71.7 centners per hectare. In the broader grain and legume segment, 11.15 million hectares have been harvested, representing 96% completion. Total grain production has reached 59.067 million tonnes, with an average yield of 53 centners per hectare across all grain crops.
| Category | Area Harvested (mln ha) | Completion (%) | Production (mln t) | Average Yield (c/ha) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 4.033 | 92% | 28.914 | 71.7 |
| All grains & legumes | 11.15 | 96% | 59.067 | 53.0 |
Analysis & Market Sentiment
The near-completion of Ukraine’s corn harvest around 29 million tonnes provides clarity on exportable supplies for the remainder of the marketing year. With 92% of the planned area already harvested and fieldwork constrained by seasonal conditions, the final production figure is largely set, reducing uncertainty around domestic availability.
This visibility supports export program planning and pricing stability for Ukrainian corn in Black Sea markets. While logistical and geopolitical challenges persist, the substantial corn volume allows Ukraine to maintain its role as a key regional supplier. Market sentiment is assessed as neutral, as realized production is broadly in line with prior expectations, leaving limited room for either bullish or bearish surprises stemming from crop size.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply