- Bullish: Turkish barley imports are projected to surge to 1.3 million tons (from 0.15 million tons), creating strong demand for Russian and Black Sea barley.
- Bearish: Record EU barley harvest of 56 million tons increases competition, pressuring Russian export prices and margins.
- Supply Shock: Turkey’s domestic barley harvest fell 13% year-on-year to 6.1 million tons, driving higher reliance on imports.
Turkey Barley Market Update
Turkey has sharply increased barley procurement in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year, contracting around 0.9 million tons via tenders. Russian suppliers have secured the dominant share of these volumes, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s federal center “Agroexport.” This makes Turkey one of the key growth markets for Black Sea barley in the current season.
The acceleration in Turkish buying is directly linked to a weaker domestic crop. Turkey’s 2025/26 barley harvest is estimated at 6.1 million tons, a 13% decline from the previous season’s 7 million tons. To offset this production gap, the USDA expects Turkey’s barley imports to jump nearly nine-fold to about 1.3 million tons, compared with just 0.15 million tons in 2024/25.
Key Supply and Trade Metrics
| Indicator | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey Barley Harvest (million tons) | 7.0 | 6.1 | -0.9 (-13%) |
| Turkey Barley Imports (million tons) | 0.15 | 1.30 (forecast) | +1.15 (~+9x) |
| Turkey Barley Tenders Contracted in 2025/26 H1 (million tons) | n/a | 0.9 | — |
| EU Barley Harvest (million tons) | 50.3 | 56.0 | +5.7 |
Impact on Russian and EU Exporters
The jump in Turkish import demand is broadly supportive for Russian barley exports. With roughly 0.9 million tons already contracted and total imports forecast at 1.3 million tons, Turkey offers a significant outlet for Russian supplies in 2025/26. Established participation in Turkish tenders gives Russian exporters a structural advantage in capturing this demand.
However, the competitive backdrop is tightening. The European Union has harvested a record 56 million tons of barley this season, its largest crop since 2016/17 and 5.7 million tons above the previous year. This surplus positions EU suppliers as aggressive competitors on price and freight into the Mediterranean, potentially capping Russian premiums and forcing tighter margins to defend market share in Turkey.
Overall, the balance of factors remains moderately bullish for Black Sea barley flows into Turkey, but the record EU crop injects meaningful downside risk to price levels and limits upside for Russian exporters.
Source: Market Data
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