Black Sea Sunflower Oil Retreats — Price Outlook

• Bullish: Rapeseed oil and meal led gains, with EU rapeseed complex hitting weekly highs and palm oil strengthening across origins.
• Bearish: Black Sea sunflower oil and Western Hemisphere soybean markets softened, highlighting pressure on export-oriented origins.
• Mixed: Soybean oil and meal showed regional divergence, creating potential arbitrage opportunities between EU, American, and Asian markets.

Global Vegetable Oils Overview

The global oilseed complex showed mixed signals, with weakness in Black Sea sunflower oil contrasting with strength in rapeseed and palm oil. Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea declined to its weekly low even as CIF Mumbai held at peak levels, underscoring firm import demand. Rapeseed and palm oil markets advanced broadly, while soybean oil prices diverged by region.

Vegetable Oil	Location / Contract	Price (USD/t)	Daily Change (USD/t)	Weekly Context
Sunflower oil	FOB Black Sea	1,285.00	-5.00	Weekly minimum
Sunflower oil	CIF Mumbai, India	1,402.95	0.00	Weekly maximum
Soybean oil	FOB EU	1,294.78	+2.80	Weekly maximum
Soybean oil	FOB Brazil	1,135.39	-1.09	Softening
Soybean oil	US CBOT	1,158.75	-1.10	Softening
Soybean oil	Dalian, China	1,174.15	Marginally higher	Firm
Rapeseed oil	FOB Netherlands	1,207.50	+8.02	Weekly maximum
Palm oil	FOB Malaysia	1,032.31	+4.97	Higher
RBD palm oil	Dalian, China	1,240.54	+3.78	Higher
Palm kernel oil (RBD)	FOB Malaysia	1,890.50	+9.95	Higher

The $5.00/t decline in Black Sea sunflower oil contrasts with a $117.95/t premium for CIF Mumbai, highlighting persistent demand from Asian buyers despite regional price pressure. Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands recorded the strongest daily gain among oils, reinforcing a notably tighter EU balance sheet. Palm-based products moved higher across Malaysia and China, further supporting the broader vegetable oil complex.

Meals: Divergent Soy Complex, Strong Rapeseed Support

Meal	Location / Contract	Price (USD/t)	Daily Change (USD/t)	Weekly Context
Sunflower meal	CIF France	240.33	+1.60	Weekly maximum
Soybean meal	US CBOT	321.43	+1.76	Weekly high
Soybean meal	FOB Brazil	320.89	-0.50	Softer
Soybean meal	Dalian, China	437.08	-2.65	Weekly minimum
Soybean meal	CIF EU	365.17	0.00	Unchanged
Rapeseed meal	FOB EU	257.91	+7.53	Weekly maximum

Meal markets mirrored the mixed tone in oils. Sunflower meal CIF France and rapeseed meal FOB EU both pushed to weekly highs, underlining firm EU protein demand and limited rapeseed availability. Soybean meal prices diverged, with CBOT supported at a weekly high while Brazil softened and China’s Dalian market slid to a weekly low, signaling region-specific supply-demand imbalances.

Oilseeds: Softer Soybeans, Firmer Rapeseed

Oilseed	Location / Contract	Price (USD/t)	Daily Change (USD/t)	Weekly Context
Soybeans	FOB Brazil	425.16	-1.69	Lower
Soybeans	US CBOT	386.90	-1.75	Lower
Soybeans	Dalian, China	615.10	Virtually unchanged	Stable
Rapeseed	MATIF France	555.98	+5.73	Maximum level

Western soybean benchmarks in Brazil and on CBOT edged lower, reflecting softer sentiment in export-focused origins, while Chinese soybean prices held steady. In contrast, MATIF rapeseed extended gains to a maximum level, aligning with the strength observed in rapeseed oil and meal and emphasizing a structurally tighter EU rapeseed complex.

Strategic Implications for Black Sea Traders

The pullback in Black Sea sunflower oil, against a still-elevated CIF Mumbai premium, suggests only moderate bearish pressure and leaves room for margin capture into Asia if demand persists. Strength in the EU rapeseed complex may lend indirect support to Black Sea rapeseed values and crush margins. Diverging soybean prices between the EU, Americas, and Asia open arbitrage windows for Black Sea traders to position between origins, though they should monitor whether current sunflower oil weakness is a short-lived adjustment or the onset of seasonal price normalization.

Source: Market Data