- Neutral to Bearish: Expanding Russian soybean meal production and higher domestic absorption support local supply but add to regional pricing pressure.
- Bearish: A 14% drop in EU-27 soybean imports and Ukraine’s shrinking market share intensify competition for limited demand.
- Bearish: Brazil’s record harvest, rising crushing, and a 241% surge in ending stocks point to heavier global supplies and weaker premiums.
Soybeans Market Overview
Global soybean and meal markets are facing mounting supply pressure as Russia ramps up production, EU imports soften, and Brazil prepares for record harvests alongside sharply higher ending stocks. Together, these trends point toward a neutral to bearish outlook for prices and increased competition among exporters, particularly in the Black Sea and South American regions.
Russia: Rising Soybean Meal Output and Strong Domestic Demand
Russian soybean meal production is projected to increase by 9.3% over the next three years, climbing from 4.6 million tons to 5.1 million tons by 2028, according to OleoScope analysts. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 4.14 million tons in 2025, meaning the Russian market will absorb around 82% of total output. This limits exportable surpluses but reinforces Russia’s role as a stable, domestically focused producer.
Feed sector demand is supported by research from the Soy Checkoff organization, which shows that high soybean meal inclusion rates (38–50%) can reduce feed requirements by 6 kg per pig in herds affected by respiratory diseases. This effect is particularly important in winter and spring, when disease risk peaks, potentially anchoring robust seasonal offtake for soybean meal in Russia’s livestock sector.
European Union: Import Contraction and Stronger Oilseed Balance
EU-27 soybean imports for the 2024/25 season (starting July 1) totaled approximately 6.61 million tons as of January 11, marking a 14% year-on-year decline, according to European Commission data. The slowdown reflects both improved domestic oilseed output and expanding processing capacity within the bloc, reducing reliance on external suppliers.
Ukraine’s share of the EU-27 soybean import market has slipped from 62.9% to 58.8%, indicating stiff competition from other origins. At the same time, the EU rapeseed harvest has rebounded strongly to 20.16 million tons from 16.77 million tons in 2024. This larger crop has contributed to a reduction in overall oilseed imports of more than 43%, reinforcing a more comfortable supply situation across the European oilseed complex.
Brazil: Record Harvest, Higher Crushing, and Stock Build-Up
Safras & Mercado forecasts that Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest will reach a record 179.28 million tons. Despite this, soybean exports in 2026 are expected to fall 3% to 105 million tons as greater volumes are directed to the domestic crushing industry. Crushing is projected to rise to 60 million tons from 58.5 million tons, supporting increased soybean meal and oil production.
Soybean meal output is estimated at 47.4 million tons, up 2% year on year, with exports seen growing 6% to 24.7 million tons. However, the most striking shift is in Brazil’s soybean ending stocks, which are forecast to surge 241% to 15.37 million tons from 4.51 million tons. No soybean imports are anticipated in 2026, compared with 969,000 tons in 2025, underlining the country’s ample supply position. Analyst Rafael Silveira expects the abundant soybean meal availability to drive a pronounced decline in premiums, pressuring global meal benchmarks.
Key Market Metrics
| Region / Item | Metric | Current / Forecast Level | Change vs. Prior Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Soybean meal production (2025–2028) | 5.1 million tons (2028) | +9.3% from 4.6 million tons |
| Russia | Domestic soybean meal consumption (2025) | 4.14 million tons | ~82% of total production |
| EU-27 | Soybean imports 2024/25 (as of Jan 11) | 6.61 million tons | -14% year-on-year |
| EU-27 | Ukraine share of soybean imports | 58.8% | Down from 62.9% |
| EU-27 | Rapeseed harvest | 20.16 million tons | Up from 16.77 million tons in 2024 |
| EU-27 | Oilseed imports | N/A (aggregate) | More than -43% |
| Brazil | Soybean harvest 2025/26 | 179.28 million tons | Record level |
| Brazil | Soybean exports 2026 | 105 million tons | -3% |
| Brazil | Domestic crushing 2026 | 60 million tons | Up from 58.5 million tons |
| Brazil | Soybean meal production 2026 | 47.4 million tons | +2% |
| Brazil | Soybean meal exports 2026 | 24.7 million tons | +6% |
| Brazil | Soybean ending stocks 2026 | 15.37 million tons | +241% from 4.51 million tons |
| Brazil | Soybean imports 2026 | 0 | Down from 969,000 tons |
Implications for Traders and Logistics
The combination of stronger Russian meal output, reduced EU import demand, and significantly larger Brazilian stocks points to a neutral to bearish environment for soybean and meal prices. For Black Sea traders, Russia’s higher domestic absorption may cap export volumes, but greater regional supply could still weigh on local values. The EU’s 14% import decline and Ukraine’s shrinking market share mean exporters will need to compete more aggressively for remaining EU demand or pivot toward alternative destinations.
Brazil’s burgeoning inventories and expected decline in soybean meal premiums are likely to pressure global benchmarks and erode margins for higher-cost origins. Logistics coordinators should closely monitor flows into non-EU markets, adjust shipment programs in response to slower European offtake, and factor potentially weaker flat prices and basis levels into freight and storage decisions.
Source: Market Data
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