- Algeria Tender Secured: OAIC booked 600,000–720,000 tons of milling wheat at $253–$254/ton C&F, with Argentine origin expected to dominate.
- Russian Prices Under Pressure: Russian wheat producer prices fell 10.2% YoY to 12,142 rubles/ton in November 2025, making wheat the cheapest major grain domestically.
- Logistics Advantage: February 2026 shipment slots for South American origins put Black Sea and European suppliers at a one‑month delivery disadvantage.
- Regional Bearish Signal: Weak Russian domestic prices and Algeria’s shift toward South American wheat reinforce bearish fundamentals for Black Sea exporters.
Algeria Wheat Tender Overview
Algeria’s state grain agency OAIC purchased around 600,000 tons of milling wheat at its January 19 tender, with some trade estimates suggesting the final volume could reach 720,000 tons. The deal was concluded at $253–$254 per ton C&F for wheat of optional origin, with Argentine supplies expected to cover most of the award on the back of a competitively priced bumper new crop.
Shipment terms favor South American and Australian sellers, who can deliver in February 2026. European and Black Sea origins are constrained to a March 2026 shipment window, effectively putting them at a one‑month scheduling disadvantage in Algeria’s import program.
Russian Domestic Grain Price Dynamics
In Russia, domestic grain markets weakened notably by late 2025. According to Rosstat, the average producer price for wheat fell to 12,142 rubles per ton by the end of November 2025, down 1,384 rubles or 10.2% year‑on‑year versus November 2024. This decline positioned wheat as the cheapest major grain crop in the country.
| Commodity | Price (RUB/ton, Nov 2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 12,142 | -10.2% |
| Corn | 12,542 | -8.7% |
| Barley | 12,181 | -2.2% |
| Oats | 10,078 | -3.6% |
| Millet | 9,972 | -3.4% |
| Rye | n/a | +26.4% |
| Buckwheat | n/a | +23.9% |
While wheat led the downside, other major feed grains also came under pressure: corn prices fell 8.7% to 12,542 rubles/ton, barley slipped 2.2% to 12,181 rubles/ton, oats declined 3.6% to 10,078 rubles/ton, and millet eased 3.4% to 9,972 rubles/ton. In contrast, rye and buckwheat saw sharp increases of 26.4% and 23.9% respectively, highlighting divergent supply–demand balances within the Russian grain complex.
Market Implications for Black Sea Wheat
Algeria’s reliance on attractively priced Argentine wheat at $253–$254/ton C&F, combined with a February shipment advantage for South American origins, reinforces bearish signals for Black Sea exporters. With Russian domestic wheat prices already down over 10% year‑on‑year and wheat now the cheapest major grain, regional producers face weak margins and may need to further adjust export offers to remain competitive in upcoming North African and Middle Eastern tenders.
Source: Market Data
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