- Ukrainian grain exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are down 29.2% year-on-year to 16.921 million tons, signaling weaker export demand from Ukrainian ports.
- Wheat and corn shipments are both sharply lower (–20% and –36.7% respectively), tightening vessel demand on key Black Sea export routes.
- January export pace is 17% below last year, reinforcing a Neutral to Bearish outlook for Black Sea freight originating from Ukraine, while potentially supporting demand from alternative origins.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukrainian grain and legume exports have reached 16.921 million tons from the start of the 2025/26 marketing year through January 16, well below the 23.904 million tons shipped during the same period of the 2024/25 season. The slower pace reflects a broad pullback across key commodities and underscores weaker export flows from Ukraine so far this season.
Monthly Export Pace
January shipments stand at 1.388 million tons, down from 1.672 million tons in January 2024. This 17% year-on-year decline in monthly volumes highlights the continued softness in outbound grain flows despite the peak export window.
Export Breakdown by Commodity
| Commodity | 2025/26 Exports (to Jan 16) |
2024/25 Exports (same period) |
Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & legumes | 16.921 mln t | 23.904 mln t | -29.2% |
| Wheat | 8.237 mln t | 10.328 mln t | ≈ -20% |
| Corn | 7.065 mln t | 11.153 mln t | -36.7% |
| Barley | 1.322 mln t | 2.008 mln t | ≈ -34.1% |
| Rye | 0.2 thsd t | n/a | Minimal exports |
| Flour (total) | 36 thsd t | 39.4 thsd t | ≈ -8.6% |
| Wheat flour | 35 thsd t | n/a | Slightly lower vs. last year |
| January shipments | 1.388 mln t | 1.672 mln t | -17.0% |
Freight and Logistics Implications
The 29% decline in total Ukrainian grain exports is directly reducing vessel requirements on traditional Black Sea routes. Weaker wheat and corn loadings in particular are curbing demand for bulk tonnage from Ukrainian ports, keeping freight sentiment Neutral to Bearish for the region. At the same time, reduced Ukrainian supply may redirect buyer interest and freight demand toward alternative Black Sea origins and other exporters, supporting rates where replacement volumes are sourced.
Source: Market Data
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