- Post-holiday rebound: Azov-Black Sea freight rates rose in week 3 as grain trade normalized and demand recovered after New Year holidays.
- Cost support factors: Kerch Strait delays and a shortage of spot tonnage are pushing freight rates higher across key Black Sea and Mediterranean routes.
- Zero export duties: Russia’s wheat, barley, and corn export duties dropped to zero from January 14, improving export competitiveness despite higher freight.
- Mediterranean strength: Routes to Mersin, Famagusta, Lebanon, and Italy saw some of the largest week-on-week gains, up roughly $2–3/ton.
- Baltic parallel: Baltic markets are firming as well, supported by steady cargo flows and ice season premiums in the Gulf of Bothnia and Gulf of Finland.
Azov-Black Sea Freight Market Overview
Azov-Black Sea freight rates strengthened in the third week as grain trading activity resumed following the New Year holidays. Freight for 3,000-ton wheat parcels from Azov to Sea of Marmara ports reached $37/ton, up from $35/ton in week 2, with firm demand across both short-haul Black Sea and longer Mediterranean routes to Turkey, Egypt, and Israel.
The rally is driven primarily by extended delays at the Kerch Strait and a tight spot tonnage list, both of which are supporting higher freight ideas from shipowners. At the same time, Russia’s export duty on wheat was eliminated as of January 14, with barley and corn duties also at zero, enhancing the competitiveness of Black Sea grain exports.
Wheat Freight Rates from Azov ($/ton, 3000/5000 tons FIOST sf 47′)
| Destination | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 32 | 33 | 35 |
| Turkish Black Sea ports | 32 | 33 | 35 |
| Marmara Sea ports | 34 | 35 | 37 |
| Izmir | 37 | 38 | 40 |
| East coast of Greece | 41 | 40 | 43 |
| West coast of Greece | 47 | 48 | 50 |
| Mersin | 51 | 52 | 55 |
| Famagusta | 52 | 53 | 56 |
| Lebanon | 54 | 55 | 57 |
| Egypt | 53 | 54 | 56 |
| Durres | 52 | 53 | 55 |
| East Coast of Italy | 57 | 58 | 60 |
| West Coast of Italy | 59 | 60 | 62 |
| Sardinia | 60 | 61 | 63 |
Corn Freight Rates from Azov to Caspian Ports ($/ton, 3000/5000 tons FIOST sf 49′)
| Destination | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktau | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| Makhachkala | 26 | 23 | 23 |
| Astrakhan | 33 | 28 | 28 |
Regional Logistics and Baltic Market Context
Beyond the Azov-Black Sea, Baltic freight markets are mirroring the firmer tone, with charterers gradually accepting higher rates against a backdrop of steady cargo programs. Ice season conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia and Gulf of Finland are reinforcing owners’ bargaining power, enabling the negotiation of premiums for tonnage capable of operating in these constrained winter environments.
Market Impact and Outlook
The overall freight environment remains bullish, with zero export duties enhancing the appeal of Russian wheat, barley, and corn while higher logistics costs erode part of that benefit. Mediterranean destinations such as Mersin, Famagusta, and Lebanon are exhibiting some of the strongest week-on-week gains at around $3/ton, signaling persistent tightness for longer-haul routes. Traders should account for elevated freight in margin planning and anticipate continued upside risk as long as Kerch Strait bottlenecks and regional tonnage shortages persist.
Source: Market Data
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