Black Sea Corn Prices Fall as Global Supply Rises

• Bearish: Ukrainian feed corn export prices declined USD 1–2/ton amid a stronger global supply outlook and USDA’s upward revisions to US and Chinese production.
• Supportive: Farmer reluctance to sell and stable buyer demand in Ukraine are helping to limit further price erosion despite geopolitical and global market pressure.
• Global Competition: South Korean tenders favoring South American/South African corn underscore strong competition for Black Sea origins.

Ukrainian Feed Corn Price Update

Ukrainian feed corn export prices continued to ease this week, slipping by USD 1–2/ton across key Black Sea outlets. As of January 14, 2026, bid levels in the Greater Odesa ports stand at USD 200–208/ton CPT, while Danube ports are quoted slightly lower at USD 198–206/ton CPT, according to APK-Inform. The modest decline mirrors broader weakness on international markets following the latest USDA report, which raised US corn acreage and yield estimates as well as Chinese production forecasts.

Although ongoing military risks in Ukraine typically exert downward pressure on export values, the price slide has so far been contained. Steady demand from buyers and limited farmer selling at current price levels are providing a degree of support, preventing a more pronounced correction in Black Sea corn prices.

International Tender Activity and Global Context

On the demand side, South Korean feed manufacturers remain active buyers of imported corn following the sharp decline in CBOT futures. Cargill Agri Purina purchased 68,000 tons of feed corn at an international tender on January 14, paying USD 250.89/ton C&F plus a USD 1.50/ton premium for second-port discharge. While the tender volume was below the initially planned 140,000 tons, the deal highlights the competitiveness of South American and South African origins in Asian markets.

Shipments for the Korean purchase are scheduled from South America between March 22 and April 21, with an alternative option to supply 50,000 tons from South Africa. These flows, combined with improved US and Chinese production prospects, reinforce abundant global supply and maintain pressure on Black Sea exporters, including Ukraine.

Market Impact and Price Signals

The price gap between Ukrainian CPT values and South American/South African offers into Asia underscores Ukraine’s ongoing geopolitical discount. When adjusted for freight, Korean buyers are effectively paying around USD 50/ton more for South American origin compared with current Ukrainian CPT price levels. Nonetheless, Ukrainian farmers’ reluctance to sell at prevailing bids may create a near-term price floor, limiting further downside unless global benchmarks weaken significantly.

Source: Market Data