Key Takeaways
- Kazakhstan’s sunflower seed reserves reached a record 2.11 million tons as of January 1, 2026, up 38% year-on-year.
- Total 2025 oilseed harvest hit an all-time high of 4.8 million tons, boosting inventories across major crops.
- Flaxseed (+93%), rapeseed (+101%), and safflower (+79%) stocks surged, while soybean reserves edged lower.
- Elevated supplies are bearish for regional sunflower seed prices and increase export competition in the Black Sea market.
Market Update
Kazakhstan began 2026 with record sunflower seed reserves of 2.11 million tons as of January 1, an all-time high for the country and a 38% increase from 1.53 million tons on the same date in 2025, according to APK-Inform citing official statistics.
The buildup in stocks is broad-based across the oilseed complex. Flaxseed reserves nearly doubled year-on-year to 1.21 million tons from 627 thousand tons. Rapeseed stocks rose to 455 thousand tons from 226 thousand tons, while safflower reserves increased to 138 thousand tons compared to 77 thousand tons a year earlier. Soybean reserves declined modestly, slipping to 69 thousand tons from 78 thousand tons.
These record stock levels are the direct result of Kazakhstan’s 2025 oilseed harvest, which reached an all-time high of 4.8 million tons. The crop included 2.3 million tons of sunflower seeds, 1.4 million tons of flax, and 522 thousand tons of rapeseed, underpinning the strong supply outlook into 2026.
Oilseed Stock Levels (Kazakhstan, January 1)
| Oilseed | Stocks on Jan 1, 2025 (thousand tons) | Stocks on Jan 1, 2026 (thousand tons) | Year-on-Year Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seed | 1,530 | 2,110 | +38% |
| Flaxseed | 627 | 1,210 | +93% |
| Rapeseed | 226 | 455 | +101% |
| Safflower | 77 | 138 | +79% |
| Soybeans | 78 | 69 | -12% |
2025 Oilseed Harvest (Kazakhstan)
| Oilseed | Harvest 2025 (thousand tons) |
|---|---|
| Total oilseeds | 4,800 |
| Sunflower seed | 2,300 |
| Flaxseed | 1,400 |
| Rapeseed | 522 |
Market Analysis
Bearish implications for sunflower seed prices. The combination of record 2025 production and exceptionally high carryover stocks positions Kazakhstan as a major supplier into the Black Sea oilseed market throughout 2026. With sunflower seed reserves 580 thousand tons above year-ago levels, exportable surpluses are set to increase and may weigh on regional sunflower seed and oil prices, intensifying competition with Ukrainian and Russian origins.
For traders, the key variables to track will be Kazakhstan’s export pace, domestic crushing margins, and logistics capacity. Elevated inventories are likely to encourage more aggressive seller behavior, including discounts to secure market share, particularly if global demand growth underperforms or if rival Black Sea suppliers maintain strong export programs.
Source: Market Data
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