- India’s demand shift: Soybean oil imports hit a record 5.53 million tonnes in 2025, up 33% year-on-year, as buyers moved away from palm and sunflower oils.
- China’s tightening meal balance: Soybean meal stocks are expected to fall to 900,000 tonnes by end-January from record levels near 1 million tonnes since October 2025.
- Price strength: Dalian soybean meal for January delivery reached $449.01/tonne on January 13, 2026, setting a new contract high.
- Trade implications: Strong Indian oil demand and firmer Chinese meal prices are mildly supportive for Black Sea soybean crush and meal export opportunities.
India’s Record Soybean Oil Imports
India imported 16.09 million tonnes of vegetable oils in 2025, with soybean oil purchases surging to a record 5.53 million tonnes, a 33% increase from 4.15 million tonnes in 2024. December 2025 soybean oil imports reached 505,000 tonnes, up from 442,000 tonnes a year earlier, underscoring sustained strength in demand.
The shift in India’s consumption basket was marked by a decline in other major vegetable oils. Palm oil imports fell to a five-year low of 7.58 million tonnes versus 8.86 million tonnes in 2024, while sunflower oil imports dropped 24% year-on-year to 2.83 million tonnes. Price sensitivity and substitution toward competitively priced soybean oil drove this rebalancing.
China’s Crushing Slowdown and Meal Stocks
In China, New Year holidays have curtailed crushing activity, with weekly soybean crush volumes at oil mills slipping to around 1.75 million tonnes since January. For the month, total crush is projected at about 8 million tonnes, yielding approximately 6.4 million tonnes of soybean meal.
Soybean meal inventories, which have hovered near record levels of 1 million tonnes since October 2025, are now expected to decline to roughly 900,000 tonnes by the end of January. Despite remaining relatively comfortable, this drawdown coincides with firmer domestic prices and reduced near-term export flexibility.
Dalian Soybean Meal Price Action
Dalian soybean meal futures for January delivery climbed to $449.01/tonne on January 13, 2026, up $1.00 from the previous session’s $448.01/tonne. This marks the highest level recorded for the contract and reflects both tightening inventories and expectations for stronger downstream demand.
| Market | Contract / Period | Price | Change (d/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian | Soybean meal, January delivery | $449.01/tonne | +$1.00/tonne |
| Country | Product | 2024 Imports (million tonnes) | 2025 Imports (million tonnes) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Total vegetable oils | — | 16.09 | n/a |
| India | Soybean oil | 4.15 | 5.53 | +33% |
| India | Palm oil | 8.86 | 7.58 | Five-year low |
| India | Sunflower oil | 3.72* | 2.83 | -24% |
| China | Soybean meal stocks (end-period) | — | 1.00 (Oct 2025) | → 0.90 (Jan 2026 forecast) |
*2024 sunflower oil imports for India back-calculated from 24% year-on-year decline to 2.83 million tonnes in 2025.
Implications for Black Sea Soybean and Meal Trade
The combination of record Indian soybean oil imports and firming Chinese soybean meal prices points to a neutral to slightly bullish backdrop for Black Sea soybean and meal exports. Strong Indian demand underpins global crush margins, while tighter Chinese meal inventories and higher domestic prices may temporarily erode China’s competitiveness in regional meal exports.
Black Sea suppliers could find improved opportunities in Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets as buyers diversify away from Chinese-origin meal. However, the current tightening in China is partly seasonal, linked to holiday-related crushing disruptions, which may limit the duration and scale of this window. Market participants should track the persistence of India’s substitution away from palm and sunflower oils and the trajectory of China’s post-holiday demand and crush rates.
Source: Market Data
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