- US corn output surges: Global 2025/26 corn production is projected at 1,283 Mt (+4.3% y/y), driven by a 12.5% jump in US output to 425.5 Mt.
- Ukraine strengthens export role: Ukraine’s corn crop is seen up 8.2% to 29 Mt, enabling it to maintain 23 Mt of exports despite EU production decline.
- Trade flows reshuffle: World corn exports rise 9.6% to 205.1 Mt, led by US exports at 81.3 Mt (+12.0%), while Brazil’s corn output slips and Argentina’s rises.
- Soybean leadership shifts: Global soybean output dips 1.1% to 422.5 Mt, but Brazil hits a record 175 Mt and record exports of 112.5 Mt, as US exports fall 13.1%.
- Stocks diverge: World corn ending stocks fall 4.8% to 279.2 Mt, with US stocks rising 32.5% and Brazil’s stocks plunging 66.1%.
- Bullish for Black Sea corn: Higher Ukrainian output, rising EU imports, and surging Chinese demand (+338.8% to 8 Mt) support demand for competitive Black Sea origins.
Global Corn Production Outlook 2025/26
The USDA December report projects global corn production at 1,283 million tonnes for 2025/26, a 4.3% increase from 1,230.6 Mt in 2024/25. The United States leads this expansion, with output expected to jump 12.5% to 425.5 Mt, underpinning its dominant role in the world corn balance.
Ukraine’s corn production is forecast to grow 8.2% to 29 Mt, in contrast to the European Union, where output is set to fall 3.9% to 56.8 Mt. In South America, Brazil’s corn harvest is projected to decline 3.7% to 131.0 Mt, while Argentina’s crop is expected to rise 6.0% to around 53 Mt.
| Country / Region | 2024/25 Corn Output (Mt) | 2025/26 Corn Output (Mt) | Y/Y Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 1,230.6 | 1,283.0 | +4.3% |
| United States | 378.4 | 425.5 | +12.5% |
| Ukraine | 26.8 | 29.0 | +8.2% |
| European Union | 59.1 | 56.8 | -3.9% |
| Brazil | 136.0 | 131.0 | -3.7% |
| Argentina | 50.0 | 53.0 | +6.0% |
Corn Trade, Demand, and Stocks
World corn exports are projected to climb 9.6% to 205.1 Mt. The US is set to consolidate its leadership with exports of 81.3 Mt (+12.0%), followed by Brazil at 43 Mt, Argentina at 37 Mt, and Ukraine at 23 Mt. Despite only moderate production growth, Ukraine maintains a sizeable export presence, supported by regional demand.
On the demand side, China’s corn imports are expected to surge 338.8% to 8 Mt, while the European Union’s imports rise 7.6% to 20 Mt, partly offsetting its internal production decline. Global ending corn stocks are forecast to fall 4.8% to 279.2 Mt, with US stocks rising 32.5% in contrast to a sharp 66.1% decline in Brazil.
| Item | 2024/25 (Mt) | 2025/26 (Mt) | Y/Y Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Corn Exports | 187.2 | 205.1 | +9.6% |
| US Corn Exports | 72.6 | 81.3 | +12.0% |
| Brazil Corn Exports | 43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0% |
| Argentina Corn Exports | 37.0 | 37.0 | 0.0% |
| Ukraine Corn Exports | 23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| China Corn Imports | 1.8 | 8.0 | +338.8% |
| EU Corn Imports | 18.6 | 20.0 | +7.6% |
| World Corn Ending Stocks | 293.3 | 279.2 | -4.8% |
Global Soybean Balance and Trade
For soybeans, the USDA projects global production at 422.5 Mt in 2025/26, down 1.1% year-on-year. Brazil is expected to achieve a record 175 Mt (+2.0%), consolidating its role as the main global supplier, while US soybean output is forecast to decline 2.8% to 115.8 Mt.
Brazil is set to dominate soybean exports with a record 112.5 Mt (+9.1%), as US exports fall 13.1% to 44.5 Mt. China remains the core demand center, with soybean imports projected at 112 Mt, up 3.7% from the previous season.
| Country / Region | 2025/26 Soybean Output (Mt) | 2025/26 Soybean Exports (Mt) | Y/Y Export Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| World (production) | 422.5 | – | -1.1% (production) |
| Brazil | 175.0 | 112.5 | +9.1% |
| United States | 115.8 | 44.5 | -13.1% |
| China (imports) | – | 112.0 | +3.7% (imports) |
Bullish Implications for Black Sea Corn
Ukraine’s 8.2% increase in corn production to 29 Mt supports a stable export program of 23 Mt at a time when global corn trade is expanding by 9.6%. With EU output declining and imports rising 7.6% to 20 Mt, Ukraine is well positioned to capture nearby demand, particularly within Europe.
US export dominance at 81.3 Mt will intensify competition, especially in price-sensitive destinations, but the sharp rise in Chinese corn imports to 8 Mt and lower Brazilian corn output create openings for competitive Black Sea origins. The combination of tighter global stocks, divergent regional balances, and growing import needs underpins a generally constructive outlook for Black Sea corn basis and freight-advantaged flows into the EU and Mediterranean.
Source: Market Data
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