- Production upgrade: USDA FAS raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat harvest forecast to 89.5 million tons (from 87.5 million), with carryover stocks up to 14.688 million tons.
- Exports steady: Wheat export forecast held at 44 million tons despite larger crop, below IKAR’s 46 million ton potential including Crimea.
- Near-term pressure: January shipments expected to slow on holidays, weather, and logistical constraints, weighing on short-term export flows.
- Medium-term support: Higher wheat and feed grain output underpins global supply security, keeping Russia as a leading exporter.
- Market tone: Neutral to slightly bearish near-term on shipment slowdown; structurally supportive medium-term on robust production and stocks.
USDA Ups Russian Wheat Production, Keeps Export Outlook Unchanged
The Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat production forecast to 89.5 million tons, up 2 million tons from December’s estimate of 87.5 million tons. Despite the larger crop, the official wheat export outlook remains unchanged at 44 million tons, which is above the previous crop year’s 43 million tons but still below the export potential cited by some local analysts.
Carryover wheat stocks were revised sharply higher, to 14.688 million tons from 13.188 million tons, indicating that a portion of the larger harvest will remain in storage rather than being immediately shipped to export markets. The USDA figures exclude Crimea and new regions.
Grain Balance Sheet Revisions
Feed grains also saw higher production estimates. Total feed grain output is now projected at 39.05 million tons versus 37.475 million tons previously, with shipments edging up to 7.3 million tons from 7.005 million tons. Barley production is forecast at 19.4 million tons (up from 18.6 million), with exports steady at 3.7 million tons and carryover stocks rising to 962,000 tons from 762,000 tons.
Corn harvest and export projections remain unchanged at 14.5 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. Oat exports were revised up to 300,000 tons from 275,000 tons, with production at 3.8 million tons. Rye exports are unchanged at 30,000 tons, suggesting relatively stable flows in these smaller markets.
| Commodity | Metric | Dec Estimate (million tons) | Jan Estimate (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | Production | 87.5 | 89.5 |
| Wheat | Exports | 44.0 | 44.0 |
| Wheat | Carryover Stocks | 13.188 | 14.688 |
| Feed Grains (total) | Production | 37.475 | 39.05 |
| Feed Grains (total) | Shipments | 7.005 | 7.3 |
| Barley | Production | 18.6 | 19.4 |
| Barley | Exports | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Barley | Carryover Stocks | 0.762 | 0.962 |
| Corn | Production | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Corn | Exports | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Oats | Production | – | 3.8 |
| Oats | Exports | 0.275 | 0.3 |
| Rye | Exports | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Export Potential and Market Leadership
Dmitry Rylko, Director General of IKAR, highlighted that when Crimea’s approximately 0.7 million ton wheat harvest is included, Russia’s export potential could reach about 46 million tons. This is above the USDA’s 44 million ton forecast, underscoring uncertainty around Russia’s ability to fully realize its theoretical export capacity given infrastructure and policy constraints.
Russia has maintained its position as the leading player in the global wheat market through the first 11 months of 2025, with CSAQAP laboratories testing around 50 million tons of exported grain products destined for more than 100 countries. New export routes have opened from Leningrad Region ports, with Vysotsk shipping wheat to Turkey and Israel for the first time, and Ust-Luga initiating wheat exports to Togo and Egypt. In addition, Krasnodar Krai ports resumed wheat shipments to Iraq after a one-year pause, delivering 320,000 tons.
Seasonal Shipment Slowdown and Logistics
Rylko noted that December grain exports were average and significantly below November levels, reflecting a typical seasonal moderation. January shipments are expected to weaken further, pressured by New Year holidays, adverse weather, and logistical bottlenecks across the Russian export corridor. These factors are likely to delay loadings and could temporarily cap realized export volumes despite ample supply.
Market Implications and Sentiment
The combination of higher production and larger carryover stocks is fundamentally supportive for global wheat availability and should reinforce Russia’s role as a core supplier into key destinations in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. However, the decision to keep the export forecast unchanged, alongside the gap between USDA’s 44 million ton figure and the 46 million ton export potential cited by IKAR, signals expectations of either stronger domestic use or persistent export headwinds.
Near term, the anticipated January slowdown in shipments due to holidays, weather-related disruptions, and logistical constraints is mildly bearish for Russian FOB basis levels and could shift some demand to competing origins in the Black Sea and EU. Medium term, the enlarged crop and higher stocks provide a buffer against weather or geopolitical shocks, leaving overall market sentiment neutral to slightly bearish in the short run but structurally supportive as the 2025/26 marketing year progresses.
Traders should closely monitor Black Sea port operations, freight conditions, and any emerging policy measures that could affect export pace, alongside weather developments that might influence late-season fieldwork and the condition of the upcoming crop.
Source: Market Data
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