- Forecast Upgrade: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook to 44.6 million tons on strong demand and better export economics.
- Record Sales: November wheat shipments hit an all-time high of 5.1 million tons as buyers returned after delaying purchases.
- Improved Margins: Export margins turned slightly positive as domestic prices fell while FOB values held near $230/ton.
- Broader Grain Strength: Barley and corn export forecasts were also increased, lifting total grain exports to 52.9 million tons.
- Mixed Signals Ahead: Softer December loadings and ruble strength temper the otherwise neutral-to-slightly bullish outlook.
Russian Wheat Export Outlook Strengthens
SovEcon increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 agricultural season to 44.6 million tons, a 0.4 million-ton upgrade from the previous estimate. The revision reflects persistent import demand and improved export margins as domestic prices soften while global benchmarks stabilize.
November wheat sales surged to a record 5.1 million tons, sharply above the prior November high of 4.3 million tons. Much of this strength came from buyers who had delayed purchases on expectations of lower prices but ultimately re-entered the market, pushing monthly volumes to unprecedented levels.
Export Margins and Price Dynamics
Export margins for Russian wheat have shifted from negative to slightly positive territory. This improvement stems from continued declines in domestic wheat prices, while export prices have held roughly steady around $230 per ton on a FOB basis. SovEcon CEO Andrey Sizov indicated that further upside to the export forecast remains possible, though slow forward sales and the strengthened ruble continue to cap near-term momentum.
| Commodity | Season / Basis | Price (FOB) |
|---|---|---|
| Russian Wheat | 2025/26, FOB | $230/ton |
Broader Russian Grain Export Revisions
Alongside wheat, SovEcon raised its projections for other key grains. Barley exports were lifted by 0.2 million tons to 3.8 million tons, while corn exports were revised up by 0.1 million tons to 2.5 million tons. As a result, total Russian grain exports for 2025/26 are now projected at 52.9 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from the prior estimate.
| Commodity | 2025/26 Export Forecast (Mt) | Change vs. Prior (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 44.6 | +0.4 |
| Barley | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| Corn | 2.5 | +0.1 |
| Total Grain | 52.9 | +0.3 |
Port Loadings and Key Destinations
Wheat loadings at Novorossiysk port in December 2025 reached 1.752 million tons, down from 1.984 million tons in December 2024. Despite the year-on-year decline, activity remained concentrated in traditional Middle Eastern and North African destinations, underscoring Russia’s entrenched role in these markets.
| Metric | December 2024 | December 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Novorossiysk Wheat Loadings (Mt) | 1.984 | 1.752 |
| Destination | Wheat Volume (thousand tons) |
|---|---|
| Turkey | 315.6 |
| Egypt | 263.5 |
| Iran | 191.7 |
| Oman | 137.5 |
Market Sentiment and Trading Implications
The overall outlook is neutral to slightly bullish. Record November exports and improved margins signal strong competitiveness for Russian wheat, particularly into MENA markets. However, the softer December shipping volumes and persistent ruble strength inject a degree of uncertainty. Market participants should watch January–February export flows closely to gauge whether the November surge was a one-off catch-up or the start of a sustained higher export pace, which would increase the likelihood of further forecast upgrades.
Source: Market Data
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