- Record Output: Argentina’s 2025/26 corn harvest is projected at 67 million tonnes, a 27.6% jump from the 2023/24 peak of 52.5 million tonnes and above the prior 62 million tonne estimate.
- Crop Shift: Around 200,000 hectares were shifted from soybeans to corn, cutting soybean area to 16.2 million hectares while keeping the soybean crop forecast steady at 48 million tonnes.
- Global Balance: Larger Argentine supplies are neutral to bearish for Black Sea corn premiums in late 2025, although harvest timing differences may partially cushion direct price pressure.
Argentina Corn and Soy Outlook
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 corn production forecast for Argentina to 67 million tonnes, up from a previous estimate of 62 million tonnes and well above the prior record of 52.5 million tonnes reached in 2023/24. The revision reflects a larger-than-expected expansion in corn area as farmers shifted land away from soybeans.
Approximately 200,000 hectares moved from soybeans into corn, reducing total soybean area to about 16.2 million hectares. Despite this smaller footprint, analysts maintained the soybean harvest outlook at 48 million tonnes, supported by expectations of stronger yields that offset the area loss.
| Crop / Season | Area (million ha) | Production (million tonnes) | Change vs Prior Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn 2025/26 (new forecast) | n/a | 67.0 | +5.0 vs prior 62.0 forecast; +14.5 vs 2023/24 record (52.5) |
| Corn 2025/26 (previous forecast) | n/a | 62.0 | Baseline for latest revision |
| Corn 2023/24 (record at the time) | n/a | 52.5 | Previous production peak |
| Soybeans 2025/26 | 16.2 | 48.0 | Area -0.2 vs previous; production unchanged |
Impact on Black Sea Corn
The anticipated record Argentine corn crop is neutral to bearish for Black Sea exporters, especially in markets such as Southeast Asia and North Africa where South American origins already compete aggressively. With Argentina set to add roughly 14.5 million tonnes to global corn supplies versus its previous record, Black Sea corn premiums could come under pressure in the second half of 2025 when Argentine export availability peaks.
However, differences in harvest and marketing calendars between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres offer some buffer. Black Sea shipments are typically front-loaded between July and December, while the bulk of Argentine export pressure is expected later in the marketing year, potentially tempering direct competition during the Black Sea’s core sales window.
Source: Market Data
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