- Exports Down: Ukraine’s sugar exports are forecast to fall 19.7% year-on-year to 505,000 tons in 2025/26 MY due to EU quota restrictions and logistical challenges.
- Production Cut: Sugar output is projected to drop 26.3% to 1.3 million tons amid a 21.6% reduction in sugar beet area to 199,000 hectares.
- Trade Flows Shift: Africa (32%) and the Middle East (29%) now dominate Ukrainian sugar export destinations, while the EU share has fallen to 17%.
- Freight Impact: Outlook is neutral to bearish for Black Sea–EU sugar freight, with some offset from emerging routes to Africa and the Middle East.
Ukrainian Sugar Export Outlook for 2025/26
The Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club projects that Ukraine will export 505,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 19.7% decline compared with the previous season. The drop is primarily linked to newly introduced quotas on sugar deliveries to EU countries and increasingly complex logistics to alternative destinations.
Sugar production in 2025/26 MY is forecast at around 1.3 million tons, representing a 26.3% decrease from the prior marketing year and 12.6% below the five-year average. This reduction is driven mainly by a contraction in the cultivated area under sugar beet.
Sugar Beet Area, Yield, and Harvest
The sugar beet area has fallen to 199,000 hectares, down 21.6% year-on-year and 12.4% below the five-year average. Despite the smaller footprint, agronomic performance has improved, with yields reaching 49.3 tons per hectare—2% above last season and 4.4% above the five-year norm.
Total sugar beet harvest in 2025/26 MY is expected to reach 10.2 million tons, providing the raw material base for the reduced sugar output.
| Indicator | 2024/25 MY | 2025/26 MY (Forecast) | YoY Change | Vs. 5-Year Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar Exports (tons) | 629,000 | 505,000 | -19.7% | n/a |
| Sugar Production (tons) | ~1,764,000* | 1,300,000 | -26.3% | -12.6% |
| Sugar Beet Area (hectares) | ~253,900* | 199,000 | -21.6% | -12.4% |
| Sugar Beet Yield (t/ha) | 48.3* | 49.3 | +2.0% | +4.4% |
| Sugar Beet Harvest (tons) | n/a | 10,200,000 | n/a | n/a |
*Approximate back-calculated values based on percentage changes provided.
Shifting Export Destinations
In the current 2024/25 MY, Ukrainian sugar exports have already declined to 629,000 tons, 14.2% less than the prior year, following the EU quota introduction. Trade routes have been fundamentally reshaped: Africa now absorbs 32% of exports, the Middle East 29%, and the EU just 17%.
| Destination | Share of Ukrainian Sugar Exports (2024/25 MY) |
|---|---|
| Africa | 32% |
| Middle East | 29% |
| European Union | 17% |
| Other | 22% |
Freight Market Implications
The outlook for freight related to Ukrainian sugar is neutral to bearish. The 19.7% drop in export volumes reduces cargo availability, especially on traditional Black Sea–EU lanes. At the same time, growing flows to Africa and the Middle East may open opportunities along alternative corridors, though these are constrained by more complex logistics and higher operational risks.
Freight coordinators and shipowners should anticipate continued pressure on EU-focused sugar routes while assessing the viability and profitability of servicing African and Middle Eastern demand.
Source: Market Data
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