- Export Pivot: Ukraine to boost rapeseed oil exports 2.7x to 576,000 tons in MY 2025/26 while cutting raw rapeseed exports 1.8x to 1.8 million tons.
- Smaller Crop: Rapeseed harvest seen down 10.1% year-on-year to 3.2 million tons on weaker yields of 2.6 t/ha amid adverse weather.
- Crushing Expansion: Domestic rapeseed oil output projected to jump 2.6-fold to 582,000 tons, reflecting significant crushing capacity growth.
- Price Signals: Tighter seed availability is broadly bullish for rapeseed prices, while higher oil exports may pressure rapeseed oil values versus competing origins.
Ukraine Rapeseed Market Update 2025/26
The Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UCAB) projects a notable restructuring of Ukraine’s rapeseed trade balance in MY 2025/26. Despite a smaller crop, the country plans to markedly increase exports of higher value rapeseed oil while reducing shipments of raw seed.
Rapeseed oil exports are expected to surge to 576,000 tons in MY 2025/26, a 2.7-fold increase versus the prior season. In contrast, raw rapeseed exports are forecast to fall to 1.8 million tons, a 1.8-fold decline year-on-year. This shift highlights the growing role of domestic processing in capturing more of the value chain.
UCAB estimates rapeseed acreage at 1.3 million hectares, 2.4% lower than a year earlier but still 3% above the five-year average. Adverse weather has weighed on yields, which are projected at 2.6 t/ha—8% below last season and 5.3% under the five-year norm. As a result, total rapeseed production is expected at 3.2 million tons, a 10.1% decline compared with MY 2024/25.
Despite the smaller harvest, rapeseed oil production is forecast to rise sharply, from 221,000 tons in MY 2024/25 to 582,000 tons in MY 2025/26, a 2.6-fold increase. The growth reflects expanded domestic crushing capacity and a strategic push toward exporting processed oil rather than raw seed.
Key Rapeseed Balance Metrics
| Indicator | MY 2024/25 | MY 2025/26 (Forecast) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed Area (mln ha) | ~1.33* | 1.30 | -2.4% |
| Yield (t/ha) | ~2.83* | 2.60 | -8.0% |
| Rapeseed Production (mln t) | 3.56* | 3.20 | -10.1% |
| Rapeseed Oil Production (000 t) | 221 | 582 | +2.6x |
| Rapeseed Oil Exports (000 t) | ~213* | 576 | +2.7x |
| Raw Rapeseed Exports (mln t) | 3.24* | 1.80 | -1.8x |
*Estimated from UCAB-reported percentage changes and ratios.
Market Impact and Trade Implications
The shift from seed to oil exports signals a structural upgrade in Ukraine’s rapeseed value chain. Expanded crushing capacity tightens the availability of Ukrainian raw seed on global markets, which is broadly supportive for rapeseed prices, especially in import-dependent destinations that previously relied on Ukrainian seed flows.
At the same time, significantly higher rapeseed oil exports increase competition in the vegetable oil segment. Depending on supply from the EU, Canada, and other key origins, this could be neutral to mildly bearish for rapeseed oil prices. Weather-related yield losses introduce underlying supply tightness that may limit downside risks, keeping overall sentiment skewed moderately bullish for rapeseed while more balanced for rapeseed oil.
Logistics and trading teams should prepare for a changing cargo mix: fewer bulk seed shipments and more refined oil flows that may require different storage, handling, and freight solutions.
Source: Market Data
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