- Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports to Afghanistan fell 9% y/y in January 2026 to 98.5 thousand tons, extending a broader downtrend.
- Full-year 2025 flour shipments to Afghanistan dropped nearly 15% versus 2024, to 1.048 million tons.
- Total Kazakh wheat flour exports still rose in January 2026 to about 171 thousand tons, up from 156.6 thousand tons a year earlier, on stronger Central Asian demand.
- Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan absorbed additional Kazakh flour volumes, offsetting weaker Afghan demand.
- Shift is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat, as reduced Kazakh competition may support regional export opportunities.
Kazakhstan Flour Export Overview
Kazakhstan is rebalancing its wheat flour export flows as demand from Afghanistan, its traditional core market, continues to soften. Official data cited by APK-Inform show a measurable decline in Afghan-bound volumes, even as total exports edge higher on stronger Central Asian offtake.
January 2026 Export Performance
In January 2026, Kazakh wheat flour exports to Afghanistan registered 98.5 thousand tons, down from 108.2 thousand tons in January 2025. Despite this 9% year-on-year drop, aggregate flour exports from Kazakhstan increased to roughly 171 thousand tons, compared with 156.6 thousand tons in the same month a year earlier.
| Destination / Indicator | Period | Volume (thousand tons) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan flour imports from Kazakhstan | January 2025 | 108.2 | — |
| Afghanistan flour imports from Kazakhstan | January 2026 | 98.5 | -9% |
| Total Kazakh wheat flour exports | January 2025 | 156.6 | — |
| Total Kazakh wheat flour exports | January 2026 | 171.0 | +9.2% |
| Afghanistan flour imports from Kazakhstan | Full year 2025 | 1,048.0 | ~ -15% vs 2024 |
The data underline a clear divergence: Afghanistan’s share of Kazakh flour exports is shrinking, while overall volumes are supported by alternative regional demand.
Full-Year 2025 Trend
Across 2025, Kazakhstan shipped 1.048 million tons of wheat flour to Afghanistan, almost 15% below 2024 levels. This sustained contraction points to structurally weaker Afghan import demand, changes in local milling capacity, or a shift toward alternative suppliers.
Central Asia Demand Dynamics
While Afghan demand has cooled, Kazakhstan’s export growth has been underpinned by stronger buying from neighboring Central Asian markets, notably Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. These countries have taken up volumes that previously moved into Afghanistan, helping lift total January 2026 exports despite the Afghan decline.
This redistribution indicates that regional flour demand remains resilient and that Kazakhstan is successfully diversifying its customer base within overland trucking and rail corridors.
Market Impact and Price Sentiment
Neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea wheat markets. As Kazakhstan pivots toward Central Asian buyers, Afghanistan’s import gap may increasingly be filled by Black Sea wheat and flour, particularly from Russia and potentially Ukraine, depending on logistics and risk conditions.
Less Kazakh flour competition in some traditional Middle Eastern and African destinations could modestly support Black Sea export margins. At the same time, traders should watch whether Central Asian markets trend toward greater flour self-sufficiency or sustain elevated import demand from Kazakhstan.
Logistics and Trade Flow Considerations
Freight and logistics coordinators should track evolving overland flows as more Kazakh flour is directed into Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan rather than southward into Afghanistan. This may adjust railcar allocations, truck availability, and border-crossing bottlenecks, while creating scope for westward Black Sea shipments into Afghan markets via multimodal routes.
Source: Market Data
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