- Record production: Global soybean meal output in 2025/26 is forecast to exceed 290 million tonnes, up 7.9 million tonnes year-on-year and well above the 10-year average.
- Bearish pricing: Analysts view current soybean meal prices as overvalued, with downside risk from record opening stocks and strong Argentine export flows.
- Demand expansion: Global consumption is projected to reach a record 290 million tonnes, led by China, Brazil and the US.
- Policy and acreage shifts: Stricter US biofuel requirements and an expected expansion in US soybean acreage for 2026 will further boost soybean-related supplies.
- Black Sea impact: Rising Argentine and US competition may pressure Black Sea export prices, though firm import demand offers partial support.
Global Soybean Meal Market Overview
Oil World projects that global soybean meal production will surpass 290 million tonnes for the first time in the 2025/26 season, an increase of 7.9 million tonnes versus the previous year and significantly above the 10-year average of 257.9 million tonnes. Record opening stocks at the beginning of October will further amplify already ample global oilseed supply, reinforcing a fundamentally well-supplied market backdrop.
Against this supply environment, market analysts increasingly judge current soybean meal prices to be overvalued, with expectations of near-term downward pressure. The active influx of Argentine soybeans onto the global market, alongside seasonal increases in crushing volumes, is set to weigh on prices. At the same time, tighter US biofuel requirements are likely to channel more demand toward soybean oil, subject to official confirmation, while US farmers are expected to expand soybean acreage in 2026 as corn plantings decline.
Global Demand and Consumption Dynamics
On the demand side, global soybean meal consumption in October–December 2025 exceeded the same period a year earlier by 5 million tonnes, with an additional 2.9 million tonne increase anticipated by quarter-end. For the full 2025/26 season, total consumption is projected at a record 290 million tonnes, up from 280.1 million tonnes in 2024/25. China is expected to lead the expansion with an incremental 2.3 million tonnes of demand, followed by Brazil at 1.6 million tonnes and the US at 1.4 million tonnes.
| Indicator | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (f) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global soybean meal production (mln t) | ~282.1* | >290.0 | +7.9 |
| Global soybean meal consumption (mln t) | 280.1 | 290.0 | +9.9 |
| 10-year average production (mln t) | 257.9 | +32.1 vs avg | |
| China demand growth (mln t, y/y) | +2.3 | — | |
| Brazil demand growth (mln t, y/y) | +1.6 | — | |
| US demand growth (mln t, y/y) | +1.4 | — | |
*Implied from the stated year-on-year increase of 7.9 million tonnes to reach >290 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Implications for Black Sea Traders
For Black Sea traders, the increasingly bearish global soybean meal outlook implies intensifying competition as additional Argentine and US supplies reach export channels. This environment is likely to exert downward pressure on regional export prices and margins. Nonetheless, robust demand from key importers such as China, Brazil and the US offers some offset by sustaining overall trade flows.
Regional processors and exporters should track Argentine harvest progress, shipment pace and US policy developments on biofuels and acreage decisions, as these factors will shape relative price competitiveness and crush margins in the months ahead. Strategic timing of sales, diversification of destination markets, and close monitoring of basis levels against South American and US offers will be critical for preserving profitability.
Source: Market Data
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