- Russian wheat prices stable: 12.5% protein FOB values hold at $238-242/ton, sustaining the Iranian crisis-driven price surge.
- Exports revised higher: March wheat shipments now estimated at 4.2-4.6 million tonnes, near record levels for the month.
- Market tone: Neutral to bullish as firm prices coexist with strong export momentum and solid global demand.
- Logistics: High port activity expected to persist into Q2 on the back of robust March volumes.
Russian Wheat Market Update
Russian wheat export prices remained elevated and stable last week, consolidating the gains from a three-week surge sparked by the Iranian crisis. IKAR priced 12.5% protein wheat at $238 per ton FOB for late April and early May delivery, unchanged week-on-week, while SovEcon reported a slightly higher band of $239-242 per ton FOB, up from $238-240 previously. The resilience of prices at these levels indicates sustained buyer interest despite a higher price environment.
Price and Export Data
| Indicator | Current Level | Previous Estimate/Week | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian wheat 12.5% (IKAR, FOB) | $238/ton | $238/ton | Unchanged week-on-week |
| Russian wheat 12.5% (SovEcon, FOB) | $239-242/ton | $238-240/ton | Slightly higher price range |
| Russian grain exports, March (SovEcon) | 4.2 million tonnes | 3.8 million tonnes | Estimate revised up |
| Russian wheat exports, March (IKAR) | 4.4-4.6 million tonnes | 4.1 million tonnes | Estimate revised up |
| Russian wheat exports, March (Rusagrotrans) | 4.3-4.5 million tonnes | n/a | Potential second-strongest March since 2023 |
Market Impact and Outlook
The combination of firm, elevated FOB prices and upgraded export forecasts paints a neutral-to-bullish picture for Russian wheat. March shipment estimates have been raised by roughly 10-15%, with multiple agencies now expecting 4.2-4.6 million tonnes of exports, which would mark one of the strongest March performances since 2023. This underscores robust global demand and effective execution along Russia’s export corridors.
For market participants, the data imply continued structural support for Russian wheat into the end of the marketing year. Traders can expect a well-supported price environment, while logistics and supply chain planners should prepare for persistently high port activity through Q2 as strong buyer appetite keeps volumes elevated.
Source: Market Data
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