- Surging Argentine exports: Sunflower seed shipments to the EU reached 216,000 tons in February 2025, nearly double January volumes, driving a 17-fold year-on-year increase for the October–February period.
- EU sourcing shift: Bulgaria and Romania have rapidly increased purchases from Argentina, reducing reliance on traditional Black Sea origins.
- Rising production outlook: Argentine sunflower production is projected at 6.1–6.2 million tons in 2026, up 17–19% from 2025, supporting export potential near 800,000 tons.
- Pressure on Black Sea suppliers: Increased South American competition is neutral to bearish for Ukrainian and Russian exporters, likely weighing on prices and market share in key EU destinations.
Argentine Sunflower Seeds Reshape EU Supply
Argentina has rapidly emerged as a key sunflower seed supplier to Europe, with February 2025 exports to the EU surging to 216,000 tons, up from 113,000 tons in January. Bulgaria led demand with 121,000 tons after zero purchases the previous month, followed by Romania with 73,000 tons (versus 33,000 tons in January) and Portugal with 21,000 tons.
Across the October–February period of the 2025/26 marketing year, Argentine sunflower seed exports totaled nearly 430,000 tons, compared with just 25,000 tons a year earlier. The EU absorbed 290,000 tons of this volume, while South Africa received 67,000 tons and Turkey 47,000 tons, alongside smaller shipments to the United States, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Algeria.
Export and Production Volumes
| Period / Year | Destination / Metric | Volume (tons) |
|---|---|---|
| February 2025 | Total Argentine exports to EU | 216,000 |
| February 2025 | Bulgaria | 121,000 |
| February 2025 | Romania | 73,000 |
| February 2025 | Portugal | 21,000 |
| Oct–Feb 2025/26 | Total Argentine sunflower exports | 430,000 |
| Oct–Feb 2025/26 | Exports to EU | 290,000 |
| Oct–Feb 2025/26 | Exports to South Africa | 67,000 |
| Oct–Feb 2025/26 | Exports to Turkey | 47,000 |
| 2025 | Argentine sunflower production | 5,200,000 |
| 2026 (projected) | Argentine sunflower production | 6,100,000–6,200,000 |
| 2025/26 (projected) | Total Argentine sunflower exports | 800,000 |
Implications for Black Sea Exporters
The influx of Argentine sunflower seeds into traditional Black Sea export markets is neutral to bearish for Ukrainian and Russian suppliers. EU crushers are expected to lift processing volumes in the second half of the season, but this rebound will be driven primarily by South American-origin seeds rather than Black Sea material.
Black Sea exporters face increased price competition and potential loss of market share in key EU destinations, particularly Bulgaria and Romania, where Argentine volumes have expanded sharply. The diversification of EU sourcing away from the Black Sea reduces regional dependency and may compress origin premiums historically earned by Ukrainian and Russian sunflower seed suppliers.
Source: Market Data
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