- Bullish: Ukraine’s barley exports surged 22% year-on-year to 2.8 million tons in 2025/26 MY, signaling strong export availability for international buyers.
- Bearish: Total barley output remains 19.7% below the five-year average, underscoring ongoing structural production constraints despite the export rebound.
- Bearish (Prices): Higher export volumes, supported by reduced domestic consumption and large carryover stocks, may pressure regional feed barley prices in Black Sea, North African, and Middle Eastern markets.
Ukraine Barley Export Recovery in 2025/26 MY
Ukraine has exported 2.8 million tons of barley since the start of the 2025/26 marketing year, a 22% increase compared with the same period in 2024/25, according to data from the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UKAB) as of March 6. This marks a clear recovery from the previous season, when barley exports fell to 2.3 million tons, down 8.4% year-on-year.
Barley production in 2025/26 MY reached 5.3 million tons, edging up 0.4% versus the prior season but still 19.7% below the five-year average. While wartime conditions continue to cap output relative to pre-conflict levels, overall production has stabilized enough to support stronger export flows.
Supply Balance and Export Drivers
UKAB attributes the export rebound to a combination of slightly higher production, reduced domestic consumption—particularly in the feed segment—and substantial carryover stocks from previous seasons. This combination has loosened the domestic balance sheet, freeing up additional volumes for the seaborne market.
The elevated carryover is especially important given that current output remains structurally below the multi-year norm. It suggests that Ukraine can maintain a firm export program in the short term, even without a full recovery in harvested volumes.
Market Impact and Price Implications
The 22% year-on-year increase in barley exports signals improved availability from the Black Sea region and is likely to add downward pressure on regional feed barley prices. Additional Ukrainian supply will intensify competition in key importing regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, where Ukrainian barley competes directly with Russian, EU, and Australian origins.
Traders should closely monitor whether Ukraine can sustain this export pace through the remainder of the marketing year, given the persistent production deficit relative to the five-year average. Any disruptions to logistics, future crop prospects, or domestic demand could quickly alter the current export-friendly balance.
Ukraine Barley Supply & Export Snapshot
| Metric | 2024/25 MY | 2025/26 MY | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley Exports (million tons) | 2.3 | 2.8 | +22.0% |
| Barley Harvest (million tons) | 5.28 (approx.) | 5.3 | +0.4% |
| Harvest vs 5-Year Average | n/a | 19.7% below | Below trend |
Source: Market Data
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